The Canary In The Pennsylvania Coal Mine?

A poll from Susquehanna raised eyebrows this week when they posted Stelson with a nine-point lead, 48-39. Susquehanna is an average pollster based on its 538 accuracy rating, but they are based in Pennsylvania, and perhaps more importantly, its headquarters is in Pennsylania’s 10th district. If there’s one race you’d expect them to get right it’d be this one. They also have Harris up 5 in the district that Trump won by 4 in 2020.

So we’ll see.

But if Janelle Stelson does manage to defeat Rep. Scott Perry, the Freedom Caucus-leading, Election denying, January 6 insurrection, Bible-thumping extremist who somehow finds himself representing a swing district, it would be a big blow to Republicans and Trump’s chances in the state would likely be almost nil.

And fun fact: Stelson moderated Perry’s 2018 & 2020 general election debates when she was a local TV anchor. I guess she’s heard enough of his lies by now.

So it’s one to keep an eye on on election night.

Source: Newsweek

Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson is gaining ground on six-term U.S. Representative Scott Perry in Pennsylvania, according to a recent poll.

Stelson is a former television anchor seeking to unseat Perry, the former House Freedom Caucus chair who has represented Pennsylvania since 2013.

A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey conducted between October 4 and 7, just ahead of the only scheduled debate between the two candidates, shows Stelson leading the GOP incumbent by nine points.

The poll shows Stelson’s support extending beyond the margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points, with 48 percent of respondents backing her and 39 percent backing Perry.

Cook Political Report identifies Pennsylvania’s 10th District, which includes Harrisburg and York, as a Republican-leaning region with an R+6 rating.

The poll also asked respondents about the candidates’ favorability, finding the Democratic candidate with a 17-point lead. Forty percent of respondents have a favorable view of Stelson, while 27 percent have a favorable view of Perry. Conversely, 20 percent of voters view Stelson unfavorably and 38 percent say the same about Scott.