It’s often said that the Selzer poll is the gold standard for polling in Iowa, the absolute single poll that everyone looks at. In fact, Ann Selzer may be the best pollster in America, period. Highly regarded for her integrity, she will release polls at odds with other pollsters, and almost always turns out to be correct. She does not follow the herd like so many other, lesser pollsters. If that’s what the data says, she will release it.
So, last night when she released her long-awaited final poll for Iowa the news came down like an earthquake hitting the internet. Kamala Harris leading in Iowa? How can that be? Iowa has gone hard right in recent years, with all Republicans in Congress, and a statehouse with large Republican majorities. And a Republican Governor. But then they did something stupid. Really stupid. They instituted a 6-week abortion ban this summer, and that seems to be the driving force for these numbers. At least that’s the most straightforward, simplistic explanation.
And if Ann Selzer is right, we may soon see the most shocking result in modern presidential history.
Source: Des Moines Register
Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.
A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.
The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.
“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. “She has clearly leaped into a leading position.”
Has she been accurate in the past?
Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)
2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)About as good as any pollster gets. https://t.co/OfFO6ePDLy
— Matthew Klein (@MattKleinOnline) November 2, 2024
Dobbs is a BFD in Iowa, as it should be everywhere. The women in Iowa get it.
Male pollster: Tie game, we’ve adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we’ve adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we’ve adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we’ve adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?— emptywheel (Blue Jean) (@emptywheel) November 2, 2024
The biggest takeaway from the Selzer Iowa poll is that she’s leading white women over 65 by forty points.
— Christopher Hale (@chrisjollyhale) November 2, 2024
Husband: Why are you crying?
Me: Ann Selzer
Him: Who’s that? What did she do to you?
— Shannon Watts (@shannonrwatts) November 3, 2024
And the cold hard truth here.
The new Iowa poll is a guarantee that either Trump or Selzer is toast. Only one can emerge alive.
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) November 2, 2024
