The Armenian-Azerbaijani peace method showed a favourable advancement in December when the two nations around the world held immediate talks. This seems to problem external players though, who view the South Caucasus area as an extension of the political wrestle amongst the US-led West and Russia in Ukraine. On Dec. seven, 2023, Armenia and Azerbaijan for the initial time issued an surprising joint assertion, without the need of the involvement of any third celebration, in which both of those nations confirmed their intentions to normalise relations and attain a peace treaty based on the ideas of territorial integrity and sovereignty. Also for the very first time, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed as section of the joint statement to assistance just about every other at worldwide level. As a final result, Armenia supported Azerbaijan’s initiative to host the UN’s 29th Session of the Conference of Parties (COP29) in return for Azerbaijan’s guidance for Armenia’s candidacy for membership of the Jap European Team COP Bureau. This historic joint statement was possible due to the direct engagement of the get-togethers in negotiations devoid of any involvement of third parties.
The constructive developments begun with the fifth conference of the condition commissions on the delimitation of the state border involving Armenia and Azerbaijan held at the shared border. As portion of the course of action, both Armenia and Azerbaijan authorized the restrictions of the commission on border delimitation in December.
It is worth emphasizing that all these beneficial developments in the peace course of action among Armenia and Azerbaijan ended up reached by way of direct talks, a little something which Azerbaijan experienced been advocating for a while. Azerbaijan suggested to Armenia keeping immediate bilateral talks and also negotiations in a regional format with the participation of Ga. The idea driving Azerbaijan’s proposals is to sideline and minimise the disruptive involvement of 3rd get-togethers that are seeking to facilitate their geopolitical pursuits by taking the peace course of action hostage and viewing it as an extension of the geopolitical rivalry in Ukraine. This has been the circumstance with the involvement of Russia, France/EU and the Usa as “intermediaries”.
Article-colonial perspective: the part of France in sustaining Armenia’s occupation policy
France’s policy of supporting Armenia and its intense nationalistic circles has led to intense, unhinged steps that contradict UN ideas and international regulation. A single case in point is the new resolution adopted on 17 January by the French Senate which calls for sanctions versus Azerbaijan for the measures taken to re-build Azerbaijani sovereignty around Karabakh. The irony of the resolution is that even though it affirms Armenia’s ideal to protect its “territorial integrity” such as by pressure, it condemns Azerbaijan for defending its territorial integrity and re-creating its sovereignty. The resolution goes additional and phone calls for the launch of the previous irredentist Armenian leaders who led the occupation of Azerbaijani territory and ethnic cleansing of its Azerbaijani inhabitants, and purchased missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ganja and other Azerbaijani towns in 2020, in which dozens of civilians have been killed.
The hottest resolution by the French Senate is portion of President Macron’s ongoing attempts to insert himself as a “formidable” statesman on the planet stage. On the other hand, these attempts retain failing and France has become an insignificant exterior actor in the South Caucasus.
As a previous co-chair of the Minsk Group, France liked the geopolitical privileges of impact in the South Caucasus area many thanks to the very long drawn-out Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands. The sole reason of France was to make sure the endless sustainability of the status quo, facilitating Armenia’s annexation of the Azerbaijani lands in the extensive expression. Having a considerable Armenian diaspora and history of support for Armenian irredentism and armed rebellions considering the fact that the 19th century, France views Armenia as a possible satellite to be employed in an endeavor to job Paris as a world player amidst its colossal defeats in Africa’s Sahel location. Biased and Armenia- centric French policies to Azerbaijan can be observed in the steps of the previous French ambassador to the UN, Jean-Bernard Mérimée, who throughout the UN Safety Council session pursuing Armenia’s occupation of Kelbajar district of Azerbaijan in April 1993 instructed excluding Armenia’s title from the draft resolution and introducing in its place the ambiguous term “local Armenian forces” in purchase to spare Armenia responsibility for its steps.
Jean-Bernard Mérimée also advocated utilizing the language of Chapter VI of the UN Constitution on the tranquil settlement of disputes, by objecting to the use of Chapter VII language on taking action to restore peace and safety, in UN Stability Council Resolution 822. In other words, France deliberately advocated the Chapter VI formulation, which is termed the Pacific Settlement of Disputes, in purchase to secure the profession of Kelbajar by Armenia and make it section of an infinite negotiations course of action in favour of Armenia.
As a co-chair of the previous Minsk Team from 1997, France put on a present of becoming a peace process mediator. In every suggestion proposed by the co-chairs it did anything to suggest Armenia-pleasant “solutions”, such as the Madrid Rules, in order to trade swathes of the occupied Azerbaijani lands for the creation of a Kosovo-type statelet in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh area. This was part of a colonial state of mind to sustain exterior affect in the region. All the function of France and its associates, the US and Russia, aimed to maintain the profession standing quo indefinitely. In March 2008, Azerbaijan took the issue of the occupied lands to the UN General Assembly as the inaction of the Minsk Group had designed stagnation. France and its associates objected to this endeavor and the French agent at the UN designed it apparent that France would vote versus the draft resolution. France, the US and Russia alongside one another with Armenia voted in opposition to the draft resolution. The resolution adopted by the UN Typical Assembly referred to as for the “immediate, full and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian forces from all the occupied territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan”.
When Armenia started to deliver unlawful Armenian settlers from Lebanon, Syria and Armenia to the then occupied lands, this was met with inaction amounting to tacit approval for this demographic engineering plan from the co-chair nations, together with France. Azerbaijan wished to raise the concern of unlawful settlements in their territory and have a reality-locating mission sent to the occupied lands in 2010, but the Minsk Team co-chairs exerted enormous tension on Azerbaijan which had to withdraw its draft resolution. In impact, the co-chairs monopolised administration of the conflict in get to influence and rule the South Caucasus location as colonial powers.
Azerbaijan exposes the weakness of France, neutralising its tries to get leverage in the location
With the begin of the Azerbaijani counteroffensive to stop the profession of Karabakh in 2020, France was so irritated that President Macron disseminated pretend information. His groundless and unsubstantiated statements that “Syrian mercenaries are fighting on Azerbaijan’s side” were cheap propaganda invented by Russia and Armenia. Owning been defeated in a geopolitical wrestle over Libya by Turkey the identical 12 months, Macron’s anti-Turkey hysteria culminated in accusations against Turkey of developing issues in the South Caucasus, forgetting that Turkey is a regional nation bordering all three South Caucasus nations and also a shut purely natural ally of Azerbaijan. Owning appreciated a long time of conflict management by means of the colonial system of the Minsk Group, France’s chief failed to value that the stability of electrical power had presently modified in favour of Azerbaijan and Turkey, which has strategic autonomy not like in the nineties. In Oct 2020 in the midst of the war, when each individual working day the Azerbaijani Military was liberating village soon after village, city following city, France alongside one another with Russia and the United States attempted to go a UN Safety Council Resolution in get to nullify the 4 SC resolutions adopted in the nineteen nineties calling for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Karabakh.
President Macron’s irrational remarks that “We will not take Azerbaijani regulate over Nagorno-Karabakh” contradicted worldwide law and the concept of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of sovereign states, and can be viewed as the climax of his shortsighted see of international coverage. Meanwhile, French nationals having element in the war in opposition to Azerbaijan as foreign mercenaries have been a thing the Élysée Palace did not handle, unlike its hard criminal actions towards French nationals signing up for conflicts in Syria and Iraq. When the Second Karabakh War ended with a trilateral assertion in November 2020, France and the Minsk Group shed their function in the peace system. They experienced been excluded from talks on the trilateral statement, which enhanced French hysteria about Azerbaijan’s victory. In the new geopolitical realities Turkey’s position experienced enhanced. In a desperate try to keep their impact, President Macron’s business office termed for the already out-of-day Minsk Team to be place in cost of worldwide supervision of the trilateral assertion in Karabakh. In December 2020 Macron and the French Senate tried to blackmail Azerbaijan by adopting a non-binding resolution calling on the French govt to formally recognise the now defunct Armenian irredentist entity in Karabakh.
As France observed alone struggling to retain any impact in the South Caucasus region, it stubbornly acted as if the useless Minsk Team still existed, appointing a new “co-chair”, Brice Roquefeuil, in 2021. The appointment was rejected by Azerbaijan and Roquefeuil has not been welcome in Azerbaijan at any time considering that. This was yet another diplomatic weakness of the Macron administration.
How France ruined the EU initiative
With the start out of EU mediation as a final result of Charles Michel’s particular initiative by the finish of 2021, the French president desperately tried out to use the EU platform to insert himself into the peace course of action. Next the Japanese Partnership Summit in Brussels in December 2021, Emmanuel Macron appeared in a lodge wherever he fulfilled the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders for a photo chance. Macron tried to play a “mediator” position and posted his shots on X (Twitter). By carrying out so the French president was hoping to current himself as the “protector” of Armenians for his domestic foundation as properly as to fake that France is a “global” electricity.
Armenia refused to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh and continued its army provocation, not getting the Brussels format for talks seriously. It released a armed forces attack on Azerbaijani positions on the conditional border on twelve September 2022 which kicked off large scale battling. Azerbaijan’s countermeasures and considerable retaliation towards the Armenian military targets compelled Armenia and its exterior backers to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty above Karabakh at the 1st European Political Group Summit in Prague on six October 2022 with the participation of Macron and Michel. And nevertheless yet again Emmanuel Macron got his photograph option.
Azerbaijani civil society activists staged protests on the Lachin highway from Armenia’s transportation of landmines and weapons, from the unlawful financial activities of Russian billionaire Ruben Vardanyan in the formerly Russian-controlled zone of Karabakh in order to generate financial profits for Armenian irredentism from Azerbaijan, and in opposition to environmental damages to the forests of Karabakh. Armenia started off to disseminate a phony narrative about a so referred to as “blockade” and France alongside one another with Armenia experimented with to move a draft resolution at the UN SC in December 2022. As a permanent member of the Safety Council, France geared up a pro-Armenia draft resolution in which it dramatized and falsely offered the situation on the Khankendi-Lachin road as a “humanitarian disaster”. This endeavor was led by Macron’s office straight and his overseas policy advisors. As a final result of a 10-working day diplomatic battle France conceded nonetheless yet another diplomatic defeat by abandoning the draft, which had had to go as a result of various editions in the dialogue, ultimately shedding its most important goals and turning out to be irrelevant.
Macron’s distinctive obsession with Armenia ongoing. While Macron was specified an possibility to just take aspect in Michel’s mediation, Macron and Michel seemed to want to change the Brussels structure to incorporate the French president. Having said that, Azerbaijan swiftly turned down the change and insisted on the trilateral format that experienced been the foundation of the EU’s initial engagement. Immediately after Macron’s unacceptable remarks on French Tv set, Brussels preferred to add the French president to the format for the seven December 2022 conference. Nonetheless, President Ilham Aliyev rejected Macron’s participation and declined to vacation to Brussels if Macron was present. Then Brussels tried to facilitate Macron’s involvement by adding German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as Azerbaijan thought that Germany may well comprise and harmony France’s undiplomatic Armenia-centric placement. Olaf Scholz also participated in the 2nd European Political Neighborhood Conference in June 2023.
In his conference with leaders of the Armenian radical Dashnak occasion and Armenian local community of Marseilles in June 2023, President Macron claimed that he would continue to acquire “action” pertaining to Karabakh and his motivation should not be doubted. Macron even more said that France experienced despatched a armed forces attaché to its embassy in Yerevan which “means something”. Overconfident, the French president went on to say, “I have and will go on to put more force on Aliyev than Pashinyan himself. I am the only a person who has a very clear situation and message on the Karabakh situation.”
As Armenia ongoing to smuggle weapons and illicit merchandise, which include landmines made in Armenia in 2021, into Karabakh by using the Lachin street, Azerbaijan experienced to just take matters into its own fingers and recognized a border crossing level, as is the inalienable suitable of a sovereign nation. Looking at its incapacity to sustain the Armenian irredentist promises and job its affect in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, France ironically condemned a sovereign nation’s lawful actions to regulate its have borders on its have sovereign land.
President Macron vowed to provide worldwide diplomatic pressure to bear to enable the move of illicit products and unchecked travel by means of the Lachin highway in April 2023. In spite of the French propaganda assaults in opposition to Azerbaijan, Paris unsuccessful but once more. The present of vehicles lining up to cross the border, which was an plan of the French presidency to violate Azerbaijan’s sovereignty beneath the pretext of “humanitarian aid”, was completely debunked and nullified by Azerbaijan.
With the local anti-terror actions launched by Azerbaijan on 19 September 2023, the period of a gray zone and Armenian unlawful irredentist routine came to an conclusion within just fewer than 23 several hours. After yet again, France tried to move a resolution at the UN SC and unsuccessful miserably. Conference on the sidelines of an EU summit in Granada in Oct 2023, the EU’s Michel, Macron and Scholz with the participation of Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan adopted a unusual document without having Azerbaijan’s participation. Azerbaijan had refused to show up at the assembly following the refusal of Macron and Scholz to allow Turkish President Erdogan’s participation. Given that the Turkish president wrecked French steps in Libya and the East Med, Macron believed he could realize some thing in opposition to Turkey. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan as soon as once more struck a blow to the French president’s hopes, making him irrelevant to the method. Macron also harmed the EU initiative, as by placing his signature to the Granada doc Charles Michel effectively sidelined himself and the EU as a “mediator”. Given that then Michel’s mediation and the Brussels approach have been lifeless.
After experiencing crushing geopolitical defeats in the Sahel location France suffered devastating diplomatic defeats in the South Caucasus by Azerbaijan. The exposure and expulsion of French intelligence brokers at the French embassy in Baku inflicted a further blow to Macron’s France. France is a declining ability and its neocolonial arrogance that it can intimidate smaller sized states by means of worldwide establishments has been shattered in the situation of Azerbaijan. This proves that states defending their sovereignty and pursuing a realist international coverage with a solid alliance of regional states these as Turkey and Israel can roll again the conflict management geopolitical system and colonialist procedures of the large powers. The case of Azerbaijan is a design for that. Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of Metropolis, College of London. His exploration region handles the South Caucasus and Iran.
[Photo of IAEA Imagebank, via Wikimedia Commons]
Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of Town, University of London. His analysis space handles the South Caucasus and Iran. The views expressed in this posting are those people of the creator and do not always mirror TGP’s editorial stance.
