Through its shortsighted actions, the Biden administration has destroyed its possibility to be an unbiased “mediator” in the peace method in between Azerbaijan and Armenia. As a outcome, Washington’s plan to facilitate talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani overseas ministers in January 2024 has unsuccessful.
Distinct damage to US relations with Azerbaijan was prompted by a report of the United States Fee on Worldwide Religious Independence (USCIRF), which made groundless accusations versus Baku. The USCIRF suggested the Condition Division consist of Azerbaijan on its Exclusive Observe List for participating or tolerating intense violations of religious freedom. Previous Armenian lobbyist Danielle Ashbahian was included in compiling the report, and it had the backing of Iranian-supported Shia extremists, whose objective is to create a theocracy in Azerbaijan. Following terror assaults versus the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran in January 2023 and the assassination attempt towards Azerbaijani MP Fazil Mustafa in Baku, some of these Shia extremists have been arrested and held legally accountable on audio proof of them performing for Iran.
In addition, the report also claims that Armenian spiritual web pages in Azerbaijan are supposedly in risk but fails to carry a one piece of evidence to again the claim. The report is mixed with politics and makes an attempt to condemn Azerbaijan’s restoration of its sovereignty above the territories previously occupied by Armenia. Having said that, the subsequent motion by the Point out Office to incorporate Azerbaijan to the Exclusive Watch Checklist countries further more strained US-Azerbaijan relations, despite the go to of Ambassador O’Brien to Baku and his positive posts on X (Twitter). This happened when Washington was making an attempt to arrange Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks and seemed to have corrected its mistaken tactic towards Azerbaijan.
What Went Completely wrong With the Point out Department’s Ambiguous “Mediation” System?
The shortsighted method by the Biden administration commenced in 2021 when they took in excess of the White Property. Despite the fact that Azerbaijan liberated its lands and transformed the status quo (which had been favoured and supported by the United States, France and Russia in just the previous Minsk Group for decades), the US administration and Secretary of Condition Blinken’s deputies continued to chat in unrealistic and out-of-date terms, fully rejecting the newly created geopolitical realities on the floor. It was distinct pursuing the 2020 2nd Karabakh War that Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity would not be compromised. The Armenian minority of Karabakh was supplied a likelihood to reintegrate into Azerbaijan smoothly inside five yrs.
This intended that phrases these types of as “status” or the Minsk Group mediation structure that preserved the preceding standing quo have been ambiguous and harmful. However, Blinken’s deputy Karen Donfried, US South Caucasus adviser Philip Reeker and the US embassy to Armenia continued to use this language. The US placement of insisting on the structure of the useless Minsk Team, in spite of the fact that in 2022 Russia and the West ended up in geopolitical struggle in Ukraine, was also a indicator of shortsightedness about the new realities that had emerged next Azerbaijan’s victory in 2020. The then US ambassador to Yerevan Lynne Tracy claimed in official remarks that the so-termed status concern and conflict in Karabakh is not solved, whilst the US embassy in Azerbaijan remained silent. This disregarded the geopolitical realities on the ground, developing stress and sending a concept to Azerbaijan that the United States is not a trustworthy “mediator”. It also gave false hope to Armenian nationalist circles that they should proceed their territorial claims. Just after realising the impossibility of reviving and reusing the out-of-date Minsk Group geopolitical system, the United States changed or paraphrased the term “status”, a legacy of the Minsk Group, with the synonymous “rights and stability of the Karabakh Armenians” and an “international mechanism” to guarantee them. At the time again, the United States experimented with to just take the very same out-of-date method by altering “status” to “ rights and security” and Minsk Team to an “international mechanism”, which were unacceptable to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan consistently said that the Armenian minority ought to reintegrate into Azerbaijani modern society and get citizenship, and their legal rights would be ensured according to the Azerbaijani Structure as nicely as international commitments that Azerbaijan has taken relating to ethnic minorities on its land.
The United States has under no circumstances urged or called on Armenia to withdraw its troops from Azerbaijani lands, even although Armenia’s failure more than 3 several years to withdraw its troops from Karabakh as for every the joint trilateral statement and day by day unlawful routines by the Armenia- and Russia-backed Armenian irredentists inside of Karabakh developed an synthetic obstacle to peace. Azerbaijan experienced usually manufactured it obvious that if Armenia would not comply with the trilateral agreement and withdraw its forces from Karabakh, Azerbaijan would have to enforce the settlement.
The Condition Office and Secretary Blinken personally fetishized the challenge of Armenians getting in a position to use Azerbaijan’s Lachin highway with no any checks in any respect. This was a blow to Azerbaijan’s sovereign rights to handle its personal borders and control unlawful weapons transportation and other smuggling from Armenia into Karabakh, additional damaging the US stance as a just or unbiased mediator in the process.
When Azerbaijan forced Armenia’s armed forces and the unlawful irredentist regime to disarm via area anti-terror steps on 19 September 2023, Secretary Blinken when once again condemned Azerbaijan’s appropriate to conduct an anti-terror procedure on its individual land and re-set up Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh. In a information conference on 22 September 2023, when asked no matter whether the United States recognises Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty in excess of Karabakh, Blinken evaded the problem. Coupled with the many refusals of US embassy officers to pay a visit to the liberated Azerbaijani metropolis of Shusha, the United States has assured the whole of Azerbaijani culture that it does not regard the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan, despite the actuality that Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan recognises that sovereignty.
Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, Ambassador James O’Brien even more destroyed US possibilities as a mediator when he explained to US senators that higher stage visits to Azerbaijan have been cancelled until eventually a peace settlement is signed. In impact the ambassador was denying Azerbaijan’s inalienable proper as a sovereign country to place an end to the gray zone and illegal armed existence on its have territory. As a issue of simple fact, Secretary Blinken experimented with to accurate the miscalculation designed by his deputy Ambassador O’Brien by generating a simply call and inquiring President Aliyev to take him in December. In the phone discussion, President Aliyev obviously outlined Azerbaijan’s stance and rejected all the groundless accusations produced by Ambassador O’Brien. He mentioned that Azerbaijan reciprocates the US final decision by refusing substantial level visits from the US. President Aliyev acknowledged Blinken’s ask for that O’Brien be authorized to pay a visit to Azerbaijan on the affliction that the ban on senior Azerbaijani officials going to the United states of america will be lifted.
The United States has weakened its place in the South Caucasus area via its sick recommended and distinctive desire-pushed Armenia-centric policies and actions. Azerbaijan has vital regional worth: it gives the only obtain outdoors Russian or Iranian command to Central Asia it is the only state bordering both equally US adversaries Russia and Iran it performs a important purpose in containing the expansionist insurance policies of Iran in the South Caucasus it has a robust alliance with NATO member Turkey, forming a counterweight in the area to the malign Russia-Iran things to do it has a crucial strategic part in Europe’s power stability it has a solid strategic partnership with Israel, and performs an critical purpose in the East-West, Middle Corridor. All these things need to be taken into account. Armenia, which is perfectly built-in into the Russia-led political/army and financial institutions, can’t be a substitute for Azerbaijan in Washington’s regional insurance policies. The United States need to, therefore, reconsider its policy methods and proper its strategic blunders.
The US view of the South Caucasus as a geopolitical playground for an extension of the war in Ukraine has done additional hurt to its standing in the location. The concept that the United States wishes to expel Russia from the South Caucasus does not bear near assessment. 1st, Armenia is continuing to assist Russia circumvent sanctions and purchase Western built semiconductor chips through its perfectly organised re-export mechanism. Even so, the United States and EU tolerate this and do not set sanctions on Armenia. Second, the United States knows that Russia is in the South Caucasus only thanks to Armenia. Russia has two army bases in Armenia, controls Armenia’s border via its border guards, has an built-in joint air defence and management system, controls the wide the vast majority of the Armenian economic climate, provides normal gas and electric power, operates the Metsamor Nuclear Electric power Plant and owns the railways. Armenia is politically, economically and militarily built-in into the Russia-led security and economic establishments. Having said that, the Biden administration mysteriously thinks that it can expel Russia from the region by placing illogical tension on Azerbaijan and Turkey. Before Azerbaijan’s nearby anti-terrorist operation the US particular consultant Louis Bono and the EU’s consultant for the South Caucasus Toivo Klaar participated in a secret conference with a Russian formal in which they urged Russia to reduce Azerbaijan from developing its sovereignty above Karabakh and to violate Azerbaijan’s borders by making it possible for Armenian/French trucks to enter Karabakh.
The Position of the Zangezur Corridor in Regional Peace
In 2009 the Condition Department experimented with to facilitate the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border by using the Zurich agreements without having Azerbaijan’s interests into account and disregarding the job of Azerbaijan in the area. Though Turkey was under huge stress from the United States to open up its borders and delink the issue from the occupation of Azerbaijani land, it refused to do so, working a blow to the US strategies.
The users of the Obama/Biden administration who are now main the Point out Section, this kind of as Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, should be acquainted with the scenario. The then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton personally attempted and unsuccessful to force by means of the Zurich Protocols. And now when Azerbaijan has liberated its lands and is the leading nation in the South Caucasus, and Turkey has potent strategic autonomy inside of NATO, the State Office is nonetheless once more failing to comprehend the realities on the floor i.e. that the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border is conditional on development in the peace approach and Armenia’s opening of the Zangezur Corridor. (As part of the trilateral assertion, it is Armenia’s obligation to employ an unimpeded transport backlink in between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakchchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan.) The State Division is repeating its error, failing to grasp the actuality that Turkey-Armenia normalisation is conditional on Armenia’s makes an attempt to get to peace and open up the Zangezur Corridor. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stated continuously that Turkey will not normalise relations with Armenia with no Azerbaijan’s blessing and acceptance.
Armenia has been dragging its feet for over 3 a long time, not honouring its obligations and developing tensions in the location. Sadly, the United States is concerned in this, as it strangely sees an opportunity to inflict a so-termed strategic defeat on Russia in Armenia as section of its broader Ukraine coverage. Nevertheless, this makes a significant risk to peace and steadiness in the South Caucasus. The United States should abandon its shortsighted strategy and urge Armenia to Ok the opening of the Zangezur Corridor for its very own economic enhancement, peace, steadiness and normalisation in the location. The argument that Armenia, encouraged by the United States, does not want to let Russia to assure the Zangezur Corridor’s security does not bear nearer evaluation: Russian border guards currently command Armenia’s state borders like, in unique, Armenian’s southern border with Iran together which the Zangezur Corridor must go. The argument that it will constrain Armenia’s sovereignty is preposterous, considering that Russia has had a solid army existence in Armenia for many years.
In other terms, if Armenia with the encouragement of the United States desires to expel the Russian armed forces, then why isn’t Yerevan executing so? Why does Armenia continue to be a member of the Russia-led military and economic unions? Does the Point out Section consider that this form of absurd geopolitical sport in the region will advantage Armenia? The United States should really appropriate this hazardous geopolitical attempt to deliver the vicious battle about Ukraine into the South Caucasus, or at the very least keep it inside of Armenia, not at the expenditure of Azerbaijan’s nationwide passions or on its land. Having said that considerably Washington attempts to blackmail Baku by means of its European subordinates these kinds of as the EU, France and Germany, Azerbaijan will not make it possible for it to materialize. Azerbaijan did not give up its national passions when its lands had been less than occupation and it will not do so now both.
Whilst Azerbaijan and Turkey launch construction of a railway from Kars to Nakhchivan, and an option highway and rail route linking Azerbaijan’s mainland to Nakhchivan with bridges around the Araz River and sections in Iranian territory, Armenia is continuing to squander its chance to integrate into regional trade and jobs as a result of the Zangezur Corridor. This threats leaving Armenia as a dead conclusion place in the area, bypassed by significant regional or intercontinental assignments. James O’Brien famously and arrogantly mentioned that the US will not let Azerbaijan to develop this route by way of Iran. He really should have persuaded Armenia to meet its obligation and get the job done on the Zangezur Corridor if Washington seriously preferred the route not to move via Iran.
How the Usa Can Suitable Its Shortsighted Strategy and Achieve Self confidence
As the new US Ambassador Mark Libby starts off his job in Baku, the United States requires to reset its relations with Azerbaijan by sending Ambassador Libby to take a look at the liberated Azerbaijani metropolitan areas of Shusha and Khankendi. Overtly expressing US assistance for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan, defending the legal rights of the Azerbaijani minority expelled from Armenia and urging the Karabakh Armenian minority to take the Azerbaijani reintegration system would place the US again on observe to be a well balanced mediator. In addition, letters by US officials to Azerbaijan’s president or formal statements by the US State Department really should unequivocally and obviously mention potent US help for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, just as they do for Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova and funnily adequate Armenia. President Biden mentions potent US assist for their territorial integrity and sovereignty, whilst he never mentions US help for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, just its independence and sovereignty.
US officials will have to stop spreading phony news and concern mongering about an alleged Azerbaijani offensive towards Armenia. They need to end putting the pursuits of radical Armenian lobby teams such as ANCA over US nationwide interests when it arrives to the South Caucasus. They really should repeal the unjust Portion 907 that restricts US help to, and additional a short while ago trade with, Azerbaijan and is an obstacle to US nationwide interests in the location. They should really be geared up to sell US-designed weapons to Azerbaijan, thereby helping it to strengthen its posture vis-a-vis Iran and Russia as well as worldwide terrorism. If they do this and are prepared to explore subject areas of mutual issue in a welcoming setting, the US can improve its place in the South Caucasus and make improvements to its ties with Azerbaijan.
[Photo by the White House, Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons]
Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of Metropolis, University of London. His analysis location handles the South Caucasus and Iran. The views expressed in this posting are individuals of the author and do not automatically mirror TGP’s editorial stance.
