Ismail Haniyeh, who stated previously that “Israel would find themselves drowning in the sands of Gaza” was assassinated in the early hours of 31st July in Iran. He was the chairman of the Hamas’s political bureau and part of its leadership since 1997 and was on a visit to Iran to attend the swearing in ceremony of the newly elected Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. With the investigation ongoing, it is being presumed that Israel was behind his assassination. This is seemingly the 4th escalation point in the month of July 2024 amid the 9 months of Israel-Hamas conflict.
The earlier three escalations were the recent attack allegedly by Hezbollah on Golan Heights, a retaliatory attack by Israel on Beirut and most importantly, Israel’s first attack on Yemen. With the conflict entering in its 10th month, the killing of Ismail Haniyeh’s has raised many questions like- Why was he killed in Iran and who was behind it? What implications will this have for Hamas as a military and political organization alongside the axis of resistance? What is the presumable future of this conflict?
Reasoning and Responsibility of the Attack
Immediately after Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) alleged Israel of carrying out this attack. Hamas confirmed on its Telegram channel that the assassination was a result of an airstrike on Haniyeh’s residence in Tehran. Israel is yet to comment on this development. Nonetheless, this will be considered as a major victory for Netanyahu and Israel. None can deny that the death of Haniyeh will weaken Hamas’s leadership and may benefit Israel in the current 10-month long conflict with Hamas.
However, insurgent/terrorist groupings when involved in enduring decades long conflict do have a succession plan in place. Haniyeh is likely to be replaced by Yahya Sinwar, for whom he stepped down as Hamas’s military leader in 2017. Sinwar is still in hiding and may not overtly reveal his location by alluding to the elevation publicly for now. While Sinwar may be elevated to the political bureau of Hamas, Mohammad Deif, who is widely speculated to be dead but on which confirmation is missing, may head the group’s military wing called Iz al-Din al-Qassam Brigade. If in case Deif is indeed confirmed deceased, either Abu Suhaib, the commander of Gaza city brigade or Abu Mua’dh, the head of the operations wing, may replace him. If Sinwar is killed, then either Rawhi Mustafa, member of political bureau, or Tawfiq Abu Naim remain the principal candidates to replace him.
The leadership in Israel may also contemplate that it will be difficult to evaluate direct evidence behind allegations of assassination attributed to them. Even if the evidence is not found and nobody takes the responsibility of the attack, the animosity between Israel and Iran and the ongoing conflict against Hamas may put the unswerving culpability with the leadership in Israel. Previously Israel has been alleged to have killed multiple Hamas leaders, particularly, Marwan Issa, Ayman Nawfal, and Ahmad Ghandur. A day before, Israel had assassinated Fuad Shukr, the right hand of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike in Beirut killed 70, following the strikes in Golan Heights that killed 12. Therefore, Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination will be understood as a continued escalation of conflict for which Israel will be held responsible among the Arab world.
Implications for the Axis of Resistance
In the aftermath of the recent assassination, multiple implications may emerge not only for Hamas but also for the axis of resistance in entirety. Developing from this will be the future course of what the axis of resistance does in the near future. For insurgent/terrorist groupings, even when the succession plan remains in place, they require time to regroup vis-à-vis seeking immediate revenge. Moreover, the nature of the leadership stipulates the actions these group takes. In comparison to his probable successor, Haniyeh is considered to be a moderate who participated in dialogue and diplomacy via mediators like Qatar and Egypt with Israel towards a solution.
However, Sinwar is considered to be radical in nature. He may remain silent for now, bide time, and attempt to continue the war till a stalemate instead of seeking immediate vengeance. Nonetheless, Hamas may now start a more aggressive information warfare campaign against Israel targeting not only the international community but also the Israeli citizens against Netanyahu considering his war cabinet has weakened when compared to the past. Certain national polls suggest that Benny Gantz may become the Prime Minister replacing Netanyahu, if elections are held in September 2024. Gantz, himself, had challenged Netanyahu in April 2024 when he left his war cabinet.
On the other hand, for other groups like Hezbollah, and Houthis, they may not seek revenge only on the basis of Haniyeh’s killing but also on the recent strikes conducted by Israel in Beirut and Yemen. In Yemen particularly, Israel had conducted a drone strike on a port in Hodeida asserting that it was used by Iran to supply weapons to Houthis. It was in retaliation to the alleged Houthi airstrike in Tel Aviv on 19th July 2024. Both Houthis and Hezbollah have publicly asserted retribution against Israel in the coming days. Hezbollah may further launch ballistic missiles on key choke points and border posts across Israel predominantly near Tel Aviv. Houthis, instead of launching a direct attack, may continue to obstruct global trade through Red Sea. Earlier, the Red Sea housed 12% of global trade and 30% of world’s container shipping. As of now, this has escalated into a regional crisis for global economies. Nevertheless, the leadership of these groups may not be as open and in public as they were before and covert meetings may ensue even with the mediators.
Predictably, Iran’s response has been far more muted than before. Even under Raisi, Tehran initially did not support the Hamas led October 7th 2023 attack on Israel. However, owing to the continuation of the conflict and the killing of Palestinians, Iran had to change its stance. On 4th June 2024 as part of the occasion of the death anniversary of Ruhollah Khomeini, the Supreme Leader Khamenei praised Hamas for conducting such attacks. The new leadership in Iran under President Masoud Pezeshkian has strongly condemned Haniyeh’s assassination and has blamed Israel for it. Three days of national mourning has been declared in Iran. Considered to be a reformist figure, Pezeshkian’s policy against Israel in view of the recent assassination on Iranian soil may only be limited to words and not deeds. As the Presidential Elections in US are approaching in 2024, Pezeshkian may wait before escalating Iran’s role in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Nevertheless, the probability of Iran declaring war on Israel is nil. Tehran may continue to play the game of shadows with its allies as part of axis of resistance.
Future of the Israel-Hamas conflict:
With more than 40000 Palestinians killed and 90000 displaced, a future wave of radicalization has begun in Gaza brewing hatred against Israel. As mentioned by Matthew Levitt in 2007, “The goals of Hamas’s radicalization efforts include building grassroots support for the Islamist agenda; affecting hard-to-reach populations; undermining moderate Palestinian leaders; and purchasing goodwill toward Hamas – and logistical support for its operatives – by promoting financial dependency”. This conflict has only made it easier for Hamas to fulfil those ends. The United States Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in December 2023 had already warned that the continuation of this conflict may bring the Israel-Palestine issue to a point of no return.
Additionally, Haniyeh’s assassination will put a break to any future opportunities for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. This means that the future of the two-state solution and Israel-Palestine coexistence remain in abyss. World leaders across the international community like Russia and China but most importantly in the Arab world namely Qatar, Turkey, Egypt and Lebanon have condemned the assassination. Therefore, the conflict is likely to continue and may turn into a stalemate with worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza and augmented threat perception not only in Israel but also across the Middle East region.
[Photo by Khamenei.ir, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Prashant Rastogi is an embedded Senior APAC SOC Analyst with MitKat Advisory Services P.L. He previously worked as a Senior Analyst for WoRisGo and was responsible for Global Risk Intelligence Updates. He is also a PhD Candidate at OP Jindal Global University. His research areas focus on digital communication and diplomacy by armed non-state actors, foreign policy of fragile states and populism.
