In recent days, the electoral verdicts in UK and France have led several commentators to heave a sigh of relief over the right wing being kept at bay. Many liberal analysts and commentators view these verdicts as a reiteration of the point that populist leaders – of the right – are beginning to face a credibility crisis globally. The dastardly attack on US Former US President, Donald Trump on July 13, 2024, condemned by US political leaders across the spectrum as well as international leaders highlighted the adverse impact of political polarization.
In the US, the Democrats are currently in disarray after incumbent President and Democrat candidate for the 2024 US Presidential election – Joe Biden’s performance in the June 27 presidential debate and repeated gaffes by the US President. On the sidelines of the NATO Summit held at Washington DC, Biden referred to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as Vladimir Putin and to US Vice President Kamala Harris as “Vice-President Trump”. While several Democrats are pushing Biden to pull out of the race, he has refused so far. Given the current state of flux within the Democrats, former US President and Republican Presidential Candidate, Donald Trump has sensed his chance.
It is not just Trump but another populist – Viktor Orban, PM of Hungary, known for having a harsh stand on immigration and issues like LGBT rights who has also announced his support for Trump (Orban has also been a fervent advocate of “illiberal government”). In an interview with the German media, Orban praised Trump saying: “He [Trump] is a man of peace. Under his four-year term he did not initiate a single war, and he did a lot in order to create peace in old conflicts in very complicated areas of the world.”
Post the NATO Summit held in Washington DC, Orban met with Trump at the latter’s residence in Mar-a-Lago (Florida) on July 11, 2024. Both leaders are supposed to have discussed the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a peace plan. Trump has repeatedly stated that the war between Russia and Ukraine would end soon if he were to take over as President and that he would utilise his personal rapport with Vladimir Putin.
After his meeting with Trump, Viktor Orban tweeted, “Peace Mission 5.0. It was an honour to visit President @realDonaldTrump at Mar-a-Lago. We discussed ways to make #peace. The good news of the day: he’s going to solve it!”
Trump on his part praised Orban and said: “There must be PEACE, and quickly. Too many people have died in a war that should have never started!”
While countries would be closely observing the US election without wanting to take sides, they would certainly be following Trump’s stance on key foreign policy issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict. While there may be reservations vis-à-vis Trump’s approach towards several important foreign policy issues, a pragmatic stance vis-à-vis Russia-Ukraine conflict would be welcome (especially by countries like India which have robust ties with both Washington and Moscow). Viktor Orban’s meeting with Trump and what have been dubbed as his “self -styled” attempts to play peace maker in the Russia-Ukraine conflict have come in for criticism. Before his meeting with Trump he has visited Russia and China, and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President, Xi Jinping, much to the chagrin of several western countries. In the past, Orban’s stance on key issues and his proximity to China has meant that he has been at loggerheads with other western countries. His current outreach to China and Russia has drawn more attention since Hungary took over the rotating presidency of EU at the beginning of July (Orban’s outreach towards China and Russia has not gone down well with several EU member states and drew flak at the NATO Summit in Washington). Several EU members have even called for withdrawal of Hungary’s EU presidency.
In conclusion, while liberals have a lot to cheer regarding some recent election results, mentioned earlier, the US election could witness a Republican win under Trump. While on certain foreign policy issues he has sought to address concerns of allies and his approach towards Russia-Ukraine, while not to the liking of western liberals is pragmatic, there are still issues on which he has not clarified his stance. During his previous tenure, Trump himself confessed that he got along better with authoritarian leaders than with democratic leaders — this included several leaders in the Middle East. The important role which Viktor Orban is trying to play as an in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and his terms with Donald Trump also highlight the fact that it may be a tad too early to write-off the influence of populist leaders on global politics. While an insular world benefits no one it is important to understand the reasons for rising populism and then counter it in an intelligent manner – as has been done in US (2020) and more recently UK (July, 2024).
[Representational image by the White House, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Tridivesh Singh Maini is a New Delhi based analyst interested in Punjab-Punjab linkages as well as Partition Studies. Maini co-authored ‘Humanity Amidst Insanity: Hope During and After the Indo-Pak Partition’ (New Delhi: UBSPD, 2008) with Tahir Malik and Ali Farooq Malik. He can be reached at [email protected].
