The Armenian-Azerbaijani peace method showed a constructive advancement in December when the two countries held direct talks. This seems to issue exterior players even though, who see the South Caucasus location as an extension of the political wrestle among the US-led West and Russia in Ukraine. On Dec. 7, 2023, Armenia and Azerbaijan for the first time issued an unexpected joint assertion, with no the involvement of any third social gathering, in which equally nations verified their intentions to normalise relations and access a peace treaty dependent on the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty. Also for the first time, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed as element of the joint statement to guidance just about every other at intercontinental amount. As a consequence, Armenia supported Azerbaijan’s initiative to host the UN’s twenty ninth Session of the Convention of Parties (COP29) in return for Azerbaijan’s help for Armenia’s candidacy for membership of the Japanese European Team COP Bureau. This historic joint assertion was attainable thanks to the direct engagement of the functions in negotiations with out any involvement of 3rd parties.
The favourable developments commenced with the fifth meeting of the state commissions on the delimitation of the point out border involving Armenia and Azerbaijan held at the shared border. As part of the method, both equally Armenia and Azerbaijan authorized the rules of the fee on border delimitation in December.
It is worth emphasizing that all these favourable developments in the peace system in between Armenia and Azerbaijan had been realized by means of direct talks, one thing which Azerbaijan experienced been advocating for a although. Azerbaijan proposed to Armenia keeping direct bilateral talks and also negotiations in a regional structure with the participation of Ga. The idea at the rear of Azerbaijan’s proposals is to sideline and minimise the disruptive involvement of third parties that are trying to aid their geopolitical interests by having the peace process hostage and viewing it as an extension of the geopolitical rivalry in Ukraine. This has been the circumstance with the involvement of Russia, France/EU and the United states as “intermediaries”.
Submit-colonial perspective: the function of France in sustaining Armenia’s occupation policy
France’s coverage of supporting Armenia and its intense nationalistic circles has led to extraordinary, unhinged steps that contradict UN concepts and intercontinental law. One case in point is the modern resolution adopted on 17 January by the French Senate which phone calls for sanctions against Azerbaijan for the actions taken to re-set up Azerbaijani sovereignty above Karabakh. The irony of the resolution is that when it affirms Armenia’s right to protect its “territorial integrity” which include by drive, it condemns Azerbaijan for defending its territorial integrity and re-developing its sovereignty. The resolution goes further more and phone calls for the release of the former irredentist Armenian leaders who led the occupation of Azerbaijani territory and ethnic cleansing of its Azerbaijani populace, and requested missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ganja and other Azerbaijani cities in 2020, in which dozens of civilians were being killed.
The hottest resolution by the French Senate is element of President Macron’s ongoing makes an attempt to insert himself as a “formidable” statesman on the environment phase. On the other hand, these attempts keep failing and France has grow to be an insignificant exterior actor in the South Caucasus.
As a previous co-chair of the Minsk Team, France enjoyed the geopolitical privileges of influence in the South Caucasus region many thanks to the lengthy drawn-out Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands. The sole objective of France was to guarantee the countless sustainability of the position quo, facilitating Armenia’s annexation of the Azerbaijani lands in the long time period. Owning a major Armenian diaspora and record of support for Armenian irredentism and armed rebellions considering that the 19th century, France views Armenia as a prospective satellite to be utilized in an attempt to project Paris as a world wide player amidst its colossal defeats in Africa’s Sahel area. Biased and Armenia- centric French insurance policies toward Azerbaijan can be witnessed in the actions of the previous French ambassador to the UN, Jean-Bernard Mérimée, who all through the UN Safety Council session adhering to Armenia’s profession of Kelbajar district of Azerbaijan in April 1993 suggested excluding Armenia’s name from the draft resolution and adding as an alternative the ambiguous phrase “local Armenian forces” in order to spare Armenia responsibility for its actions.
Jean-Bernard Mérimée also advocated using the language of Chapter VI of the UN Charter on the tranquil settlement of disputes, by objecting to the use of Chapter VII language on getting action to restore peace and security, in UN Protection Council Resolution 822. In other text, France intentionally advocated the Chapter VI formulation, which is called the Pacific Settlement of Disputes, in buy to safeguard the profession of Kelbajar by Armenia and make it portion of an infinite negotiations course of action in favour of Armenia.
As a co-chair of the former Minsk Team from 1997, France place on a demonstrate of staying a peace approach mediator. In each individual advice proposed by the co-chairs it did anything to suggest Armenia-helpful “solutions”, this sort of as the Madrid Concepts, in get to trade swathes of the occupied Azerbaijani lands for the development of a Kosovo-form statelet in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh area. This was portion of a colonial frame of mind to maintain external influence in the location. All the get the job done of France and its associates, the US and Russia, aimed to maintain the occupation standing quo indefinitely. In March 2008, Azerbaijan took the difficulty of the occupied lands to the UN Typical Assembly as the inaction of the Minsk Group experienced made stagnation. France and its associates objected to this endeavor and the French agent at the UN produced it very clear that France would vote versus the draft resolution. France, the US and Russia alongside one another with Armenia voted towards the draft resolution. The resolution adopted by the UN Typical Assembly called for the “immediate, complete and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian forces from all the occupied territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan”.
When Armenia begun to carry unlawful Armenian settlers from Lebanon, Syria and Armenia to the then occupied lands, this was satisfied with inaction amounting to tacit approval for this demographic engineering coverage from the co-chair nations, like France. Azerbaijan desired to elevate the difficulty of unlawful settlements in their territory and have a fact-discovering mission despatched to the occupied lands in 2010, but the Minsk Group co-chairs exerted immense stress on Azerbaijan which had to withdraw its draft resolution. In outcome, the co-chairs monopolised administration of the conflict in order to influence and rule the South Caucasus location as colonial powers.
Azerbaijan exposes the weakness of France, neutralising its tries to get leverage in the location
With the begin of the Azerbaijani counteroffensive to stop the occupation of Karabakh in 2020, France was so aggravated that President Macron disseminated faux information. His groundless and unsubstantiated promises that “Syrian mercenaries are battling on Azerbaijan’s side” have been cheap propaganda invented by Russia and Armenia. Possessing been defeated in a geopolitical wrestle more than Libya by Turkey the same 12 months, Macron’s anti-Turkey hysteria culminated in accusations versus Turkey of making issues in the South Caucasus, forgetting that Turkey is a regional place bordering all three South Caucasus nations and also a shut pure ally of Azerbaijan. Acquiring liked many years of conflict management by means of the colonial mechanism of the Minsk Team, France’s chief failed to value that the equilibrium of electricity experienced currently improved in favour of Azerbaijan and Turkey, which has strategic autonomy contrary to in the 1990s. In October 2020 in the midst of the war, when each and every working day the Azerbaijani Military was liberating village after village, town right after city, France collectively with Russia and the United States attempted to move a UN Protection Council Resolution in buy to nullify the four SC resolutions adopted in the nineties contacting for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Karabakh.
President Macron’s irrational remarks that “We will not acknowledge Azerbaijani command in excess of Nagorno-Karabakh” contradicted worldwide law and the idea of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of sovereign states, and can be seen as the climax of his shortsighted check out of foreign policy. In the meantime, French nationals getting portion in the war from Azerbaijan as foreign mercenaries ended up something the Élysée Palace did not handle, compared with its difficult criminal measures from French nationals joining conflicts in Syria and Iraq. When the 2nd Karabakh War finished with a trilateral statement in November 2020, France and the Minsk Group shed their role in the peace system. They experienced been excluded from talks on the trilateral statement, which elevated French hysteria about Azerbaijan’s victory. In the new geopolitical realities Turkey’s function experienced increased. In a desperate try to retain their impact, President Macron’s workplace referred to as for the now out-of-date Minsk Team to be set in cost of worldwide supervision of the trilateral statement in Karabakh. In December 2020 Macron and the French Senate attempted to blackmail Azerbaijan by adopting a non-binding resolution contacting on the French authorities to officially recognise the now defunct Armenian irredentist entity in Karabakh.
As France uncovered alone struggling to keep any influence in the South Caucasus area, it stubbornly acted as if the useless Minsk Team nevertheless existed, appointing a new “co-chair”, Brice Roquefeuil, in 2021. The appointment was rejected by Azerbaijan and Roquefeuil has not been welcome in Azerbaijan at any time considering the fact that. This was a further diplomatic weak point of the Macron administration.
How France destroyed the EU initiative
With the commence of EU mediation as a outcome of Charles Michel’s particular initiative by the end of 2021, the French president desperately tried out to use the EU system to insert himself into the peace course of action. Adhering to the Jap Partnership Summit in Brussels in December 2021, Emmanuel Macron appeared in a lodge exactly where he satisfied the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders for a photo possibility. Macron attempted to play a “mediator” job and posted his photographs on X (Twitter). By executing so the French president was making an attempt to current himself as the “protector” of Armenians for his domestic foundation as nicely as to pretend that France is a “global” electricity.
Armenia refused to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty above Karabakh and continued its armed forces provocation, not taking the Brussels format for talks significantly. It launched a military services assault on Azerbaijani positions on the conditional border on twelve September 2022 which kicked off big scale battling. Azerbaijan’s countermeasures and substantial retaliation from the Armenian armed service targets compelled Armenia and its external backers to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty in excess of Karabakh at the 1st European Political Group Summit in Prague on six Oct 2022 with the participation of Macron and Michel. And yet again Emmanuel Macron obtained his photo opportunity.
Azerbaijani civil modern society activists staged protests on the Lachin street against Armenia’s transportation of landmines and weapons, in opposition to the unlawful economic actions of Russian billionaire Ruben Vardanyan in the previously Russian-managed zone of Karabakh in order to build financial profits for Armenian irredentism versus Azerbaijan, and towards environmental damages to the forests of Karabakh. Armenia commenced to disseminate a pretend narrative about a so referred to as “blockade” and France with each other with Armenia experimented with to move a draft resolution at the UN SC in December 2022. As a permanent member of the Security Council, France geared up a pro-Armenia draft resolution in which it dramatized and falsely presented the predicament on the Khankendi-Lachin road as a “humanitarian disaster”. This try was led by Macron’s place of work straight and his overseas plan advisors. As a result of a ten-working day diplomatic fight France conceded but an additional diplomatic defeat by abandoning the draft, which experienced had to go via a number of editions in the dialogue, sooner or later shedding its key aims and getting irrelevant.
Macron’s unique obsession with Armenia ongoing. However Macron was provided an prospect to consider portion in Michel’s mediation, Macron and Michel appeared to want to modify the Brussels structure to include things like the French president. Having said that, Azerbaijan quickly turned down the adjust and insisted on the trilateral format that had been the basis of the EU’s preliminary engagement. After Macron’s unacceptable remarks on French Television, Brussels needed to incorporate the French president to the format for the 7 December 2022 assembly. However, President Ilham Aliyev turned down Macron’s participation and declined to vacation to Brussels if Macron was existing. Then Brussels tried using to facilitate Macron’s involvement by introducing German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as Azerbaijan imagined that Germany could possibly have and harmony France’s undiplomatic Armenia-centric situation. Olaf Scholz also participated in the second European Political Local community Meeting in June 2023.
In his meeting with leaders of the Armenian radical Dashnak social gathering and Armenian neighborhood of Marseilles in June 2023, President Macron claimed that he would carry on to just take “action” with regards to Karabakh and his dedication must not be doubted. Macron more said that France experienced despatched a military services attaché to its embassy in Yerevan which “means something”. Overconfident, the French president went on to say, “I have and will proceed to place much more tension on Aliyev than Pashinyan himself. I am the only one who has a very clear posture and concept on the Karabakh concern.”
As Armenia continued to smuggle weapons and illicit merchandise, including landmines manufactured in Armenia in 2021, into Karabakh by using the Lachin road, Azerbaijan had to consider issues into its individual hands and founded a border crossing place, as is the inalienable appropriate of a sovereign nation. Seeing its incapacity to maintain the Armenian irredentist statements and challenge its impact in the Karabakh location of Azerbaijan, France ironically condemned a sovereign nation’s lawful steps to handle its individual borders on its very own sovereign land.
President Macron vowed to carry intercontinental diplomatic pressure to bear to allow the flow of illicit merchandise and unchecked vacation by using the Lachin street in April 2023. Inspite of the French propaganda assaults in opposition to Azerbaijan, Paris failed nonetheless yet again. The show of vans lining up to cross the border, which was an concept of the French presidency to violate Azerbaijan’s sovereignty less than the pretext of “humanitarian aid”, was completely debunked and nullified by Azerbaijan.
With the regional anti-terror actions launched by Azerbaijan on 19 September 2023, the era of a gray zone and Armenian illegal irredentist routine arrived to an finish within much less than 23 hours. The moment all over again, France experimented with to move a resolution at the UN SC and failed miserably. Meeting on the sidelines of an EU summit in Granada in Oct 2023, the EU’s Michel, Macron and Scholz with the participation of Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan adopted a odd document devoid of Azerbaijan’s participation. Azerbaijan had refused to attend the assembly pursuing the refusal of Macron and Scholz to make it possible for Turkish President Erdogan’s participation. Due to the fact the Turkish president wrecked French steps in Libya and the East Med, Macron imagined he could obtain some thing from Turkey. On the other hand, Azerbaijan as soon as again struck a blow to the French president’s hopes, producing him irrelevant to the procedure. Macron also destroyed the EU initiative, as by putting his signature to the Granada document Charles Michel effectively sidelined himself and the EU as a “mediator”. Due to the fact then Michel’s mediation and the Brussels method have been lifeless.
Right after facing crushing geopolitical defeats in the Sahel location France suffered devastating diplomatic defeats in the South Caucasus by Azerbaijan. The publicity and expulsion of French intelligence agents at the French embassy in Baku inflicted one more blow to Macron’s France. France is a declining ability and its neocolonial vanity that it can intimidate smaller states by means of international institutions has been shattered in the circumstance of Azerbaijan. This proves that states defending their sovereignty and pursuing a realist foreign plan with a powerful alliance of regional states such as Turkey and Israel can roll back again the conflict management geopolitical mechanism and colonialist insurance policies of the significant powers. The case of Azerbaijan is a model for that. Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of Metropolis, College of London. His investigate location handles the South Caucasus and Iran.
[Photo of IAEA Imagebank, via Wikimedia Commons]
Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of City, University of London. His analysis location handles the South Caucasus and Iran. The views expressed in this write-up are people of the writer and do not essentially reflect TGP’s editorial stance.
