The Armenian-Azerbaijani peace approach showed a optimistic growth in December when the two countries held immediate talks. This appears to issue exterior gamers even though, who look at the South Caucasus area as an extension of the political struggle in between the US-led West and Russia in Ukraine. On Dec. seven, 2023, Armenia and Azerbaijan for the initial time issued an sudden joint assertion, without the involvement of any 3rd social gathering, in which both of those nations verified their intentions to normalise relations and reach a peace treaty based on the ideas of territorial integrity and sovereignty. Also for the 1st time, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed as component of the joint statement to aid just about every other at global stage. As a result, Armenia supported Azerbaijan’s initiative to host the UN’s 29th Session of the Meeting of Events (COP29) in return for Azerbaijan’s assist for Armenia’s candidacy for membership of the Japanese European Group COP Bureau. This historic joint statement was doable thanks to the immediate engagement of the get-togethers in negotiations without having any involvement of third get-togethers.
The favourable developments begun with the fifth assembly of the condition commissions on the delimitation of the condition border involving Armenia and Azerbaijan held at the shared border. As aspect of the course of action, each Armenia and Azerbaijan permitted the rules of the commission on border delimitation in December.
It is really worth emphasizing that all these optimistic developments in the peace method in between Armenia and Azerbaijan had been obtained via immediate talks, a thing which Azerbaijan experienced been advocating for a whilst. Azerbaijan instructed to Armenia keeping direct bilateral talks and also negotiations in a regional structure with the participation of Georgia. The notion at the rear of Azerbaijan’s proposals is to sideline and minimise the disruptive involvement of third get-togethers that are seeking to aid their geopolitical pursuits by taking the peace method hostage and viewing it as an extension of the geopolitical rivalry in Ukraine. This has been the case with the involvement of Russia, France/EU and the United states as “intermediaries”.
Post-colonial attitude: the purpose of France in sustaining Armenia’s occupation policy
France’s policy of supporting Armenia and its intense nationalistic circles has led to severe, unhinged steps that contradict UN ideas and international regulation. One particular case in point is the new resolution adopted on seventeen January by the French Senate which calls for sanctions towards Azerbaijan for the steps taken to re-set up Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh. The irony of the resolution is that while it affirms Armenia’s appropriate to defend its “territorial integrity” such as by drive, it condemns Azerbaijan for defending its territorial integrity and re-developing its sovereignty. The resolution goes additional and calls for the release of the former irredentist Armenian leaders who led the occupation of Azerbaijani territory and ethnic cleaning of its Azerbaijani population, and requested missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ganja and other Azerbaijani cities in 2020, in which dozens of civilians had been killed.
The most recent resolution by the French Senate is part of President Macron’s ongoing tries to insert himself as a “formidable” statesman on the world phase. Even so, these attempts retain failing and France has develop into an insignificant external actor in the South Caucasus.
As a former co-chair of the Minsk Team, France appreciated the geopolitical privileges of affect in the South Caucasus location thanks to the very long drawn-out Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands. The sole function of France was to make sure the countless sustainability of the standing quo, facilitating Armenia’s annexation of the Azerbaijani lands in the prolonged term. Acquiring a major Armenian diaspora and heritage of assist for Armenian irredentism and armed rebellions given that the nineteenth century, France views Armenia as a possible satellite to be utilized in an endeavor to job Paris as a international player amidst its colossal defeats in Africa’s Sahel region. Biased and Armenia- centric French guidelines towards Azerbaijan can be seen in the steps of the former French ambassador to the UN, Jean-Bernard Mérimée, who all through the UN Security Council consultation next Armenia’s occupation of Kelbajar district of Azerbaijan in April 1993 suggested excluding Armenia’s title from the draft resolution and incorporating as an alternative the ambiguous time period “local Armenian forces” in get to spare Armenia accountability for its steps.
Jean-Bernard Mérimée also advocated utilizing the language of Chapter VI of the UN Constitution on the peaceful settlement of disputes, by objecting to the use of Chapter VII language on using action to restore peace and safety, in UN Safety Council Resolution 822. In other words and phrases, France deliberately advocated the Chapter VI formulation, which is identified as the Pacific Settlement of Disputes, in order to defend the profession of Kelbajar by Armenia and make it section of an infinite negotiations procedure in favour of Armenia.
As a co-chair of the former Minsk Team from 1997, France put on a show of remaining a peace approach mediator. In each suggestion proposed by the co-chairs it did all the things to propose Armenia-pleasant “solutions”, such as the Madrid Ideas, in purchase to trade swathes of the occupied Azerbaijani lands for the development of a Kosovo-type statelet in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh location. This was aspect of a colonial mentality to sustain external impact in the location. All the function of France and its companions, the US and Russia, aimed to maintain the occupation standing quo indefinitely. In March 2008, Azerbaijan took the difficulty of the occupied lands to the UN Normal Assembly as the inaction of the Minsk Team experienced produced stagnation. France and its associates objected to this attempt and the French consultant at the UN created it clear that France would vote against the draft resolution. France, the US and Russia with each other with Armenia voted in opposition to the draft resolution. The resolution adopted by the UN Standard Assembly named for the “immediate, total and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian forces from all the occupied territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan”.
When Armenia started to carry illegal Armenian settlers from Lebanon, Syria and Armenia to the then occupied lands, this was fulfilled with inaction amounting to tacit approval for this demographic engineering policy from the co-chair countries, which includes France. Azerbaijan wanted to elevate the issue of unlawful settlements in their territory and have a truth-discovering mission sent to the occupied lands in 2010, but the Minsk Team co-chairs exerted enormous pressure on Azerbaijan which experienced to withdraw its draft resolution. In impact, the co-chairs monopolised management of the conflict in order to impact and rule the South Caucasus region as colonial powers.
Azerbaijan exposes the weak spot of France, neutralising its tries to get leverage in the area
With the commence of the Azerbaijani counteroffensive to finish the profession of Karabakh in 2020, France was so aggravated that President Macron disseminated fake news. His groundless and unsubstantiated statements that “Syrian mercenaries are preventing on Azerbaijan’s side” have been inexpensive propaganda invented by Russia and Armenia. Possessing been defeated in a geopolitical battle in excess of Libya by Turkey the exact yr, Macron’s anti-Turkey hysteria culminated in accusations versus Turkey of producing difficulties in the South Caucasus, forgetting that Turkey is a regional country bordering all three South Caucasus nations and also a near natural ally of Azerbaijan. Obtaining liked decades of conflict management by means of the colonial mechanism of the Minsk Team, France’s leader failed to value that the balance of energy had by now adjusted in favour of Azerbaijan and Turkey, which has strategic autonomy unlike in the nineties. In Oct 2020 in the midst of the war, when each day the Azerbaijani Military was liberating village immediately after village, city soon after city, France collectively with Russia and the United States experimented with to pass a UN Security Council Resolution in purchase to nullify the four SC resolutions adopted in the 1990s calling for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Karabakh.
President Macron’s irrational remarks that “We will not settle for Azerbaijani regulate about Nagorno-Karabakh” contradicted international legislation and the idea of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of sovereign states, and can be seen as the climax of his shortsighted perspective of foreign policy. Meanwhile, French nationals taking element in the war from Azerbaijan as international mercenaries have been a little something the Élysée Palace did not handle, not like its rough legal measures versus French nationals becoming a member of conflicts in Syria and Iraq. When the Second Karabakh War finished with a trilateral statement in November 2020, France and the Minsk Group lost their role in the peace system. They experienced been excluded from talks on the trilateral statement, which elevated French hysteria about Azerbaijan’s victory. In the new geopolitical realities Turkey’s purpose had greater. In a desperate try to keep their influence, President Macron’s place of work referred to as for the previously out-of-day Minsk Group to be put in demand of international supervision of the trilateral assertion in Karabakh. In December 2020 Macron and the French Senate attempted to blackmail Azerbaijan by adopting a non-binding resolution calling on the French authorities to formally recognise the now defunct Armenian irredentist entity in Karabakh.
As France identified alone struggling to retain any affect in the South Caucasus area, it stubbornly acted as if the lifeless Minsk Group continue to existed, appointing a new “co-chair”, Brice Roquefeuil, in 2021. The appointment was rejected by Azerbaijan and Roquefeuil has not been welcome in Azerbaijan at any time since. This was one more diplomatic weak point of the Macron administration.
How France destroyed the EU initiative
With the start out of EU mediation as a result of Charles Michel’s personal initiative by the conclusion of 2021, the French president desperately tried out to use the EU platform to insert himself into the peace process. Following the Japanese Partnership Summit in Brussels in December 2021, Emmanuel Macron appeared in a lodge where by he fulfilled the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders for a image possibility. Macron tried using to engage in a “mediator” position and posted his pics on X (Twitter). By accomplishing so the French president was seeking to existing himself as the “protector” of Armenians for his domestic foundation as properly as to pretend that France is a “global” power.
Armenia refused to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty around Karabakh and ongoing its armed forces provocation, not having the Brussels format for talks seriously. It released a military services attack on Azerbaijani positions on the conditional border on 12 September 2022 which kicked off large scale battling. Azerbaijan’s countermeasures and significant retaliation in opposition to the Armenian military services targets forced Armenia and its exterior backers to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty above Karabakh at the 1st European Political Neighborhood Summit in Prague on six October 2022 with the participation of Macron and Michel. And yet all over again Emmanuel Macron obtained his image option.
Azerbaijani civil society activists staged protests on the Lachin street versus Armenia’s transportation of landmines and weapons, versus the illegal financial pursuits of Russian billionaire Ruben Vardanyan in the formerly Russian-controlled zone of Karabakh in purchase to produce economic revenue for Armenian irredentism versus Azerbaijan, and towards environmental damages to the forests of Karabakh. Armenia started out to disseminate a bogus narrative about a so known as “blockade” and France alongside one another with Armenia experimented with to go a draft resolution at the UN SC in December 2022. As a long-lasting member of the Stability Council, France ready a professional-Armenia draft resolution in which it dramatized and falsely presented the predicament on the Khankendi-Lachin street as a “humanitarian disaster”. This try was led by Macron’s office specifically and his foreign policy advisors. As a end result of a ten-working day diplomatic battle France conceded however a further diplomatic defeat by abandoning the draft, which experienced experienced to go by means of a number of editions in the dialogue, finally losing its major aims and turning out to be irrelevant.
Macron’s distinctive obsession with Armenia continued. Although Macron was offered an option to choose section in Michel’s mediation, Macron and Michel seemed to want to modify the Brussels structure to consist of the French president. Even so, Azerbaijan quickly turned down the modify and insisted on the trilateral format that had been the foundation of the EU’s original engagement. Immediately after Macron’s unacceptable remarks on French Tv, Brussels needed to insert the French president to the structure for the seven December 2022 meeting. Nevertheless, President Ilham Aliyev rejected Macron’s participation and declined to travel to Brussels if Macron was current. Then Brussels tried using to facilitate Macron’s involvement by adding German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as Azerbaijan imagined that Germany may well consist of and balance France’s undiplomatic Armenia-centric placement. Olaf Scholz also participated in the next European Political Group Conference in June 2023.
In his conference with leaders of the Armenian radical Dashnak social gathering and Armenian group of Marseilles in June 2023, President Macron mentioned that he would continue on to choose “action” about Karabakh and his motivation should really not be doubted. Macron even more stated that France had sent a military services attaché to its embassy in Yerevan which “means something”. Overconfident, the French president went on to say, “I have and will continue to put more pressure on Aliyev than Pashinyan himself. I am the only one particular who has a clear placement and message on the Karabakh issue.”
As Armenia continued to smuggle weapons and illicit items, like landmines developed in Armenia in 2021, into Karabakh via the Lachin street, Azerbaijan had to choose matters into its very own fingers and proven a border crossing level, as is the inalienable suitable of a sovereign nation. Looking at its inability to sustain the Armenian irredentist claims and job its influence in the Karabakh area of Azerbaijan, France ironically condemned a sovereign nation’s legal actions to command its own borders on its possess sovereign land.
President Macron vowed to bring intercontinental diplomatic pressure to bear to permit the flow of illicit merchandise and unchecked travel by way of the Lachin highway in April 2023. Regardless of the French propaganda assaults against Azerbaijan, Paris failed nonetheless once more. The show of trucks lining up to cross the border, which was an plan of the French presidency to violate Azerbaijan’s sovereignty beneath the pretext of “humanitarian aid”, was completely debunked and nullified by Azerbaijan.
With the nearby anti-terror actions launched by Azerbaijan on 19 September 2023, the era of a grey zone and Armenian unlawful irredentist routine came to an end within just a lot less than 23 several hours. When once again, France tried to go a resolution at the UN SC and unsuccessful miserably. Meeting on the sidelines of an EU summit in Granada in Oct 2023, the EU’s Michel, Macron and Scholz with the participation of Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan adopted a bizarre document without having Azerbaijan’s participation. Azerbaijan experienced refused to show up at the conference next the refusal of Macron and Scholz to enable Turkish President Erdogan’s participation. Since the Turkish president destroyed French actions in Libya and the East Med, Macron assumed he could attain something against Turkey. Having said that, Azerbaijan the moment once again struck a blow to the French president’s hopes, earning him irrelevant to the method. Macron also harmed the EU initiative, as by placing his signature to the Granada doc Charles Michel primarily sidelined himself and the EU as a “mediator”. Since then Michel’s mediation and the Brussels system have been useless.
Following dealing with crushing geopolitical defeats in the Sahel location France experienced devastating diplomatic defeats in the South Caucasus by Azerbaijan. The publicity and expulsion of French intelligence brokers at the French embassy in Baku inflicted a different blow to Macron’s France. France is a declining electric power and its neocolonial vanity that it can intimidate scaled-down states by means of international establishments has been shattered in the scenario of Azerbaijan. This proves that states defending their sovereignty and pursuing a realist international plan with a strong alliance of regional states these as Turkey and Israel can roll back the conflict management geopolitical mechanism and colonialist insurance policies of the big powers. The case of Azerbaijan is a product for that. Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of Town, College of London. His investigate area covers the South Caucasus and Iran.
[Photo of IAEA Imagebank, via Wikimedia Commons]
Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of Metropolis, College of London. His investigate location handles the South Caucasus and Iran. The views expressed in this write-up are all those of the creator and do not always reflect TGP’s editorial stance.
