The Armenian-Azerbaijani peace course of action showed a beneficial advancement in December when the two nations held immediate talks. This seems to problem external gamers while, who see the South Caucasus area as an extension of the political wrestle amongst the US-led West and Russia in Ukraine. On Dec. seven, 2023, Armenia and Azerbaijan for the initial time issued an unpredicted joint assertion, without the involvement of any 3rd occasion, in which both of those nations confirmed their intentions to normalise relations and attain a peace treaty based mostly on the rules of territorial integrity and sovereignty. Also for the 1st time, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed as section of the joint statement to aid just about every other at international level. As a final result, Armenia supported Azerbaijan’s initiative to host the UN’s twenty ninth Session of the Meeting of Parties (COP29) in return for Azerbaijan’s support for Armenia’s candidacy for membership of the Eastern European Group COP Bureau. This historic joint assertion was feasible thanks to the immediate engagement of the functions in negotiations with no any involvement of 3rd get-togethers.
The favourable developments begun with the fifth conference of the point out commissions on the delimitation of the state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan held at the shared border. As element of the approach, equally Armenia and Azerbaijan permitted the polices of the fee on border delimitation in December.
It is value emphasizing that all these optimistic developments in the peace procedure involving Armenia and Azerbaijan had been accomplished by means of immediate talks, anything which Azerbaijan had been advocating for a though. Azerbaijan instructed to Armenia keeping immediate bilateral talks and also negotiations in a regional structure with the participation of Georgia. The notion behind Azerbaijan’s proposals is to sideline and minimise the disruptive involvement of 3rd parties that are hoping to aid their geopolitical pursuits by having the peace process hostage and viewing it as an extension of the geopolitical rivalry in Ukraine. This has been the circumstance with the involvement of Russia, France/EU and the United states as “intermediaries”.
Submit-colonial mind-set: the function of France in sustaining Armenia’s profession policy
France’s plan of supporting Armenia and its intense nationalistic circles has led to severe, unhinged actions that contradict UN rules and worldwide regulation. A person example is the recent resolution adopted on seventeen January by the French Senate which calls for sanctions in opposition to Azerbaijan for the measures taken to re-establish Azerbaijani sovereignty around Karabakh. The irony of the resolution is that even though it affirms Armenia’s ideal to protect its “territorial integrity” such as by power, it condemns Azerbaijan for defending its territorial integrity and re-setting up its sovereignty. The resolution goes even further and phone calls for the launch of the former irredentist Armenian leaders who led the occupation of Azerbaijani territory and ethnic cleansing of its Azerbaijani inhabitants, and purchased missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ganja and other Azerbaijani towns in 2020, in which dozens of civilians had been killed.
The most current resolution by the French Senate is component of President Macron’s ongoing attempts to insert himself as a “formidable” statesman on the entire world stage. Nevertheless, these tries maintain failing and France has become an insignificant exterior actor in the South Caucasus.
As a former co-chair of the Minsk Team, France loved the geopolitical privileges of impact in the South Caucasus location many thanks to the very long drawn-out Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands. The sole objective of France was to be certain the infinite sustainability of the status quo, facilitating Armenia’s annexation of the Azerbaijani lands in the lengthy expression. Acquiring a important Armenian diaspora and record of guidance for Armenian irredentism and armed rebellions due to the fact the 19th century, France sights Armenia as a likely satellite to be utilised in an attempt to project Paris as a worldwide player amidst its colossal defeats in Africa’s Sahel location. Biased and Armenia- centric French guidelines in the direction of Azerbaijan can be seen in the steps of the former French ambassador to the UN, Jean-Bernard Mérimée, who in the course of the UN Protection Council consultation pursuing Armenia’s profession of Kelbajar district of Azerbaijan in April 1993 advised excluding Armenia’s title from the draft resolution and including in its place the ambiguous time period “local Armenian forces” in buy to spare Armenia accountability for its steps.
Jean-Bernard Mérimée also advocated employing the language of Chapter VI of the UN Charter on the tranquil settlement of disputes, by objecting to the use of Chapter VII language on taking motion to restore peace and stability, in UN Protection Council Resolution 822. In other phrases, France intentionally advocated the Chapter VI formulation, which is known as the Pacific Settlement of Disputes, in order to safeguard the profession of Kelbajar by Armenia and make it component of an countless negotiations process in favour of Armenia.
As a co-chair of the previous Minsk Team from 1997, France set on a present of getting a peace course of action mediator. In every single suggestion proposed by the co-chairs it did every little thing to suggest Armenia-friendly “solutions”, such as the Madrid Principles, in buy to trade swathes of the occupied Azerbaijani lands for the generation of a Kosovo-sort statelet in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh area. This was section of a colonial frame of mind to maintain external affect in the region. All the get the job done of France and its companions, the US and Russia, aimed to sustain the profession position quo indefinitely. In March 2008, Azerbaijan took the problem of the occupied lands to the UN Common Assembly as the inaction of the Minsk Team experienced developed stagnation. France and its partners objected to this endeavor and the French representative at the UN designed it apparent that France would vote in opposition to the draft resolution. France, the US and Russia together with Armenia voted towards the draft resolution. The resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly named for the “immediate, total and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian forces from all the occupied territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan”.
When Armenia started to provide illegal Armenian settlers from Lebanon, Syria and Armenia to the then occupied lands, this was fulfilled with inaction amounting to tacit acceptance for this demographic engineering plan from the co-chair nations around the world, such as France. Azerbaijan preferred to increase the issue of unlawful settlements in their territory and have a point-discovering mission despatched to the occupied lands in 2010, but the Minsk Team co-chairs exerted immense stress on Azerbaijan which had to withdraw its draft resolution. In influence, the co-chairs monopolised administration of the conflict in buy to impact and rule the South Caucasus area as colonial powers.
Azerbaijan exposes the weak point of France, neutralising its makes an attempt to get leverage in the area
With the start out of the Azerbaijani counteroffensive to finish the profession of Karabakh in 2020, France was so aggravated that President Macron disseminated fake news. His groundless and unsubstantiated statements that “Syrian mercenaries are fighting on Azerbaijan’s side” were affordable propaganda invented by Russia and Armenia. Getting been defeated in a geopolitical battle about Libya by Turkey the exact 12 months, Macron’s anti-Turkey hysteria culminated in accusations in opposition to Turkey of making hassle in the South Caucasus, forgetting that Turkey is a regional nation bordering all a few South Caucasus nations and also a close all-natural ally of Azerbaijan. Obtaining loved a long time of conflict administration as a result of the colonial system of the Minsk Team, France’s leader unsuccessful to respect that the balance of ability had now changed in favour of Azerbaijan and Turkey, which has strategic autonomy as opposed to in the nineties. In October 2020 in the midst of the war, when each individual working day the Azerbaijani Military was liberating village just after village, city right after town, France together with Russia and the United States experimented with to go a UN Security Council Resolution in order to nullify the 4 SC resolutions adopted in the nineties calling for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Karabakh.
President Macron’s irrational remarks that “We will not take Azerbaijani command above Nagorno-Karabakh” contradicted global regulation and the strategy of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of sovereign states, and can be viewed as the climax of his shortsighted watch of international policy. Meanwhile, French nationals using part in the war against Azerbaijan as international mercenaries were being some thing the Élysée Palace did not address, contrary to its tough felony steps from French nationals signing up for conflicts in Syria and Iraq. When the Next Karabakh War ended with a trilateral assertion in November 2020, France and the Minsk Team dropped their part in the peace system. They had been excluded from talks on the trilateral statement, which improved French hysteria about Azerbaijan’s victory. In the new geopolitical realities Turkey’s role experienced enhanced. In a determined try to retain their affect, President Macron’s business office called for the by now out-of-day Minsk Team to be put in charge of worldwide supervision of the trilateral assertion in Karabakh. In December 2020 Macron and the French Senate experimented with to blackmail Azerbaijan by adopting a non-binding resolution calling on the French authorities to formally recognise the now defunct Armenian irredentist entity in Karabakh.
As France located by itself battling to retain any influence in the South Caucasus region, it stubbornly acted as if the useless Minsk Group continue to existed, appointing a new “co-chair”, Brice Roquefeuil, in 2021. The appointment was rejected by Azerbaijan and Roquefeuil has not been welcome in Azerbaijan ever considering the fact that. This was one more diplomatic weakness of the Macron administration.
How France wrecked the EU initiative
With the get started of EU mediation as a final result of Charles Michel’s private initiative by the conclusion of 2021, the French president desperately tried out to use the EU system to insert himself into the peace approach. Subsequent the Jap Partnership Summit in Brussels in December 2021, Emmanuel Macron appeared in a lodge in which he met the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders for a photo possibility. Macron experimented with to participate in a “mediator” position and posted his pictures on X (Twitter). By performing so the French president was making an attempt to current himself as the “protector” of Armenians for his domestic base as well as to pretend that France is a “global” electric power.
Armenia refused to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty about Karabakh and continued its army provocation, not having the Brussels format for talks severely. It introduced a armed forces attack on Azerbaijani positions on the conditional border on 12 September 2022 which kicked off large scale preventing. Azerbaijan’s countermeasures and substantial retaliation versus the Armenian navy targets forced Armenia and its exterior backers to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh at the Initially European Political Group Summit in Prague on six Oct 2022 with the participation of Macron and Michel. And but all over again Emmanuel Macron got his photograph possibility.
Azerbaijani civil culture activists staged protests on the Lachin road from Armenia’s transportation of landmines and weapons, versus the unlawful financial routines of Russian billionaire Ruben Vardanyan in the formerly Russian-controlled zone of Karabakh in get to build financial revenue for Armenian irredentism from Azerbaijan, and in opposition to environmental damages to the forests of Karabakh. Armenia started off to disseminate a faux narrative about a so termed “blockade” and France together with Armenia attempted to pass a draft resolution at the UN SC in December 2022. As a everlasting member of the Security Council, France organized a pro-Armenia draft resolution in which it dramatized and falsely presented the condition on the Khankendi-Lachin road as a “humanitarian disaster”. This attempt was led by Macron’s business office right and his overseas plan advisors. As a result of a ten-working day diplomatic fight France conceded but another diplomatic defeat by abandoning the draft, which experienced had to go by way of numerous editions in the dialogue, sooner or later getting rid of its key targets and turning into irrelevant.
Macron’s particular obsession with Armenia continued. While Macron was offered an possibility to take element in Michel’s mediation, Macron and Michel seemed to want to improve the Brussels structure to contain the French president. Even so, Azerbaijan quickly turned down the alter and insisted on the trilateral format that had been the basis of the EU’s first engagement. Right after Macron’s unacceptable remarks on French Tv set, Brussels needed to incorporate the French president to the structure for the 7 December 2022 assembly. However, President Ilham Aliyev rejected Macron’s participation and declined to vacation to Brussels if Macron was present. Then Brussels attempted to facilitate Macron’s involvement by adding German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as Azerbaijan assumed that Germany might comprise and equilibrium France’s undiplomatic Armenia-centric position. Olaf Scholz also participated in the 2nd European Political Group Conference in June 2023.
In his assembly with leaders of the Armenian radical Dashnak celebration and Armenian local community of Marseilles in June 2023, President Macron said that he would continue to take “action” regarding Karabakh and his motivation should not be doubted. Macron further said that France had despatched a armed forces attaché to its embassy in Yerevan which “means something”. Overconfident, the French president went on to say, “I have and will carry on to put additional tension on Aliyev than Pashinyan himself. I am the only one particular who has a clear posture and concept on the Karabakh difficulty.”
As Armenia continued to smuggle weapons and illicit merchandise, together with landmines generated in Armenia in 2021, into Karabakh through the Lachin street, Azerbaijan experienced to take matters into its own fingers and recognized a border crossing level, as is the inalienable correct of a sovereign nation. Observing its inability to maintain the Armenian irredentist statements and undertaking its influence in the Karabakh location of Azerbaijan, France ironically condemned a sovereign nation’s authorized actions to command its possess borders on its very own sovereign land.
President Macron vowed to deliver intercontinental diplomatic pressure to bear to make it possible for the circulation of illicit goods and unchecked travel by way of the Lachin highway in April 2023. In spite of the French propaganda attacks against Azerbaijan, Paris failed yet again. The show of vans lining up to cross the border, which was an idea of the French presidency to violate Azerbaijan’s sovereignty beneath the pretext of “humanitarian aid”, was fully debunked and nullified by Azerbaijan.
With the local anti-terror measures released by Azerbaijan on 19 September 2023, the era of a gray zone and Armenian illegal irredentist routine came to an stop in considerably less than 23 several hours. When yet again, France tried using to move a resolution at the UN SC and unsuccessful miserably. Meeting on the sidelines of an EU summit in Granada in Oct 2023, the EU’s Michel, Macron and Scholz with the participation of Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan adopted a strange document devoid of Azerbaijan’s participation. Azerbaijan experienced refused to attend the meeting subsequent the refusal of Macron and Scholz to enable Turkish President Erdogan’s participation. Considering the fact that the Turkish president destroyed French actions in Libya and the East Med, Macron believed he could attain one thing towards Turkey. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan the moment once again struck a blow to the French president’s hopes, earning him irrelevant to the procedure. Macron also harmed the EU initiative, as by putting his signature to the Granada document Charles Michel basically sidelined himself and the EU as a “mediator”. Because then Michel’s mediation and the Brussels process have been lifeless.
After dealing with crushing geopolitical defeats in the Sahel region France experienced devastating diplomatic defeats in the South Caucasus by Azerbaijan. The exposure and expulsion of French intelligence agents at the French embassy in Baku inflicted one more blow to Macron’s France. France is a declining electric power and its neocolonial vanity that it can intimidate smaller sized states through international establishments has been shattered in the circumstance of Azerbaijan. This proves that states defending their sovereignty and pursuing a realist overseas policy with a sturdy alliance of regional states such as Turkey and Israel can roll again the conflict management geopolitical system and colonialist insurance policies of the large powers. The circumstance of Azerbaijan is a design for that. Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of City, College of London. His exploration location covers the South Caucasus and Iran.
[Photo of IAEA Imagebank, via Wikimedia Commons]
Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of Town, University of London. His investigate area addresses the South Caucasus and Iran. The views expressed in this article are individuals of the creator and do not necessarily mirror TGP’s editorial stance.
