Russia-Ukraine war dwell: Prigozhin to go to Belarus as rebellion ends US intelligence suspected Wagner plot, US media report

The Kremlin struggled to put together a coherent response to the Wagner mutiny “highlighting internal security weaknesses likely due to surprise and the impact of heavy losses in Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest analysis of the conflict.

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Russian authorities mobilised Rosgvardia, the Russian National Police, the US thinktank wrote, but “ISW has not observed any reports or footage suggesting that Rosgvardia units engaged with Wagner at any point”.

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Rosgvardia’s founding mission is to protect internal threats to the security of the Russian government such as an advance on Moscow, and it is notable that Rosgvardia failed to engage even as Wagner captured critical military assets in Rostov-on-Don and destroyed Russian military aircraft

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It also noted that though Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said he had mobilised his forces – which supposedly specialise in domestic security – in response to the Wagner advance, they also “unsurprisingly” never engaged with Wagner. This is “in line with Kadyrov’s paramount objective of maintaining his own internal security force,” the ISW said.

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It concluded:

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The Kremlin’s dedicated internal security organs failed to respond to an independent military force capturing the headquarters of the SMD [southern military district] and advancing on Moscow – and Wagner likely could have reached the outskirts of Moscow if Prigozhin chose to order them to do so.

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Russian president Vladimir Putin is “obviously very afraid” and “probably hiding”, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said in his latest evening address.

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“The man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself. I am sure that he is no longer in Moscow … He knows what he is afraid of because he himself created this threat,” Zelenskiy said.

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Putin has not commented on the Belarus-brokered deal that negotiated Prigozhin’s exit from Russia and the withdrawal of Wagner troops from Rostov. He is believed to have left Moscow on a plane on Saturday afternoon and his whereabouts are unclear.

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His apparent departure from the capital contrasts notably with that of Zelenskiy, who remained in Kyiv when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine last year.

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“Today the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability. And it is happening on Russian territory, which is fully loaded with weapons,” said Zelenskiy.

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“In one day, they lost several of their million-plus cities and showed all Russian bandits, mercenaries, oligarchs and anyone else how easy it is to capture Russian cities and, probably, arsenals with weapons.”

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‘obviously very afraid’ and ‘probably hiding’, Zelenskiy says”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Sun 25 Jun 2023 02.27 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Sat 24 Jun 2023 21.19 EDT”,”id”:”649799848f08657ec73226a0″,”elements”:[[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

US spy agencies picked up information suggesting Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin was planning to take action against Russia’s military leadership as early as mid-June, US media has reported.

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Over the past two weeks there was “high concern” about what may happen regarding president Vladimir Putin’ grip on power and the country’s nuclear arsenal, the Washington Post reported, citing anonymous US officials.

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The exact timing and nature of Prigozhin’s plans were not clear until Friday, when the Wagner leader first began posting about an alleged Russian rocket attack on his forces, but “there were enough signals to be able to tell the leadership … that something was up,” the Post quoted one official as saying.

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According to the New York Times, senior American national security officials had indications as early as Wednesday that Prigozhin was preparing to take action and intelligence officials conducted briefings with the Biden administration and defence officials on the same day.

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A narrow group of congressional leaders were informed on Thursday, when supplemental affirmation of the plot arrived in, the Moments documented.

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Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has agreed to go away Russia and requested his fighters to withdraw from Rostov and halt their march on Moscow, underneath the conditions of a offer negotiated by Belarus.

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At the conclusion of an extraordinary day, during which a visibly angry Vladimir Putin experienced built an emergency television broadcast railing from the “deadly menace to our state”, Progozhin claimed that he needed to prevent shedding Russian blood and would order his troops back again to their bases as a substitute.

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Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov mentioned the criminal situation that had been opened versus Prigozhin for armed mutiny would be dropped, and the Wagner fighters who had taken element in his “march for justice” would not facial area any motion in recognition of their prior service to Russia.

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Video clips afterwards confirmed Prigozhin, who explained his gentlemen had attained inside of one hundred twenty five miles (two hundred km) of the capital, and his fighters leaving Rostov.

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Here’s our full report by Andrew Roth and Pjotr Sauer:

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Functions in Russia have been unfolding at breakneck tempo about the previous 24 hours right after Wagner manager Yevgeny Prigozhin released a march on Moscow aiming to oust the country’s army leadership, only to connect with it off on the same working day and agree to leave the region for Belarus.

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Here’s a roundup of the key developments:

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• In an abrupt about-deal with, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin mentioned he experienced named off his troops’ march on Moscow and purchased them to go out of Rostov. Under a deal brokered by Belarus, Prigozhin agreed to leave Russia and move to Belarus. He will not facial area charges and Wagner troops who took aspect in the revolt will not facial area any action in recognition of their former provider to Russia.

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• In a statement, Prigozhin reported that he wanted to steer clear of the spilling of “Russian blood”. “Now the second has appear when blood can be lose,” he mentioned. “Therefore, realising all the duty for the truth that Russian blood will be shed from a single aspect, we will change our convoys around and go in the reverse direction to our field camps.”

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• The Wagner leader was afterwards pictured leaving the headquarters of the southern armed service district (SMD) in Rostov, which his forces experienced occupied on Saturday. Wagner forces also shot down 3 navy helicopters and experienced entered the Lipetsk area, about 360km (225 miles) south of Moscow, ahead of they were called again.

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• Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko’s push office environment was the first to announce that Prigozhin would be backing down, saying that Lukashenko experienced negotiated a de-escalation with the Wagner head soon after chatting to Russian president Vladimir Putin. Lukashenko stated that Putin has because thanked him for his negotiation initiatives.

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• Putin has not publicly commented on Lukashenko’s deal with Prigozhin. He appeared on tv before on Saturday in an emergency broadcast, issuing a nationwide call for unity in the confront of a mutinous strike that he as opposed to the revolution of 1917. “Any inner mutiny is a lethal threat to our state, to us as a nation,” he explained.

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• Putin reportedly took a airplane out of Moscow heading north-west on Saturday afternoon. It is unclear where by he went or his current whereabouts.

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• In advance of the Belarus offer was declared, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy explained that: “Everyone who chooses the path of evil destroys himself. Whoever throws hundreds of thousands into the war, inevitably should barricade himself in the Moscow location from all those whom he himself armed.”

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• Ukraine’s armed service claimed on Saturday its forces made advancements around Bakhmut, on the japanese entrance, and further south. Deputy defence minister Hanna Maliar said an offensive was launched close to a team of villages ringing Bakhmut, which was taken by Wagner forces in May possibly after months of preventing. Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, commander of the southern entrance, explained Ukrainian forces had liberated an spot around Krasnohorivka, west of the Russian-held regional centre of Donetsk.

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I’m Helen Livingstone and I’ll be bringing you all the most recent information on the conflict in Ukraine and the disaster in Russia.

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A little bit far more from the ISW assessment, which suggests that nevertheless it does not forecast the imminent collapse of the Russia federal government, the weekend’s occasions “will most likely substantially damage Putin’s governing administration and the Russian war exertion in Ukraine”.

The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated offer is a small-term take care of, not a extended-expression answer, and Prigozhin’s rebel exposed intense weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian MoD…

The imagery of Putin showing up on countrywide television to simply call for the conclude of an armed rebel and warning of a repeat of a repeat of the 1917 revolution – and then demanding mediation from a overseas chief to resolve the rebellion – will have a lasting affect.

The rise up uncovered the weak point of the Russian protection forces and demonstrated Putin’s incapability to use his forces in a well timed fashion to repel an interior threat and further eroded his monopoly on power.

Prigozhin’s immediate push in the direction of Moscow ridiculed much of the Russian normal forces – and highlighted to any and all safety figures, point out owned enterprises, and other essential figures in the Russian governing administration that personal army forces individual from the central state can attain impressive success.

Russia’s Federal Street Company urged inhabitants of the Moscow location on Sunday to chorus from travelling along the M-four “Don” important expressway right up until ten am (0700 GMT), Reuters stories.

The agency experienced mentioned before in the day on the Telegram messaging application, in a post now deleted, that targeted traffic limitations on the highway in the Moscow and Tula areas remained.

The M4 inbound links Moscow with the south, and authorities shut it on Saturday as Wagner fighters manufactured their way up from Rostov.

In an examination for the Atlantic released just right before Prigozhin identified as off his mutiny, distinguished US-Polish historian Anne Applebaum asks no matter whether Putin could be “facing his Czar Nicholas II second?”

“In a sluggish, unfocused form of way, Russia is sliding into what can only be described as a civil war,” she writes.

If you are stunned, it’s possible you should not be. For months – yrs, truly –Putin has blamed all of his country’s difficulties on outsiders: The united states, Europe, Nato … Now he is experiencing a motion that life in accordance to the correct values of the modern-day Russian military services, and in truth of modern day Russia.

Prigozhin is cynical, brutal, and violent. He and his guys are enthusiastic by cash and self-curiosity. They are angry at the corruption of the major brass, the bad devices presented to them, the unbelievable variety of life squandered. They are not Christian, and they don’t care about Peter the Wonderful.

She notes that in 1917, it was Russian troopers who came household angry from Earth War I to start the Russian revolution.

Putin alluded to that instant in his temporary tv physical appearance this early morning … What he did not point out was that up until the minute he remaining energy, Czar Nicholas II was getting tea with his wife, composing banal notes in his diary, and imagining that the standard Russian peasants liked him and would constantly consider his facet.

He was completely wrong.

Additional illustrations or photos have also appear by way of on the wires, showing smiling and cheering civilians with Wagner fighters.

Website traffic constraints keep on being in place on the M-four “Don” significant expressway in the Moscow and Tula regions on Sunday, the Federal Highway Agency reported on the Telegram messaging application according to Reuters.

The M4 back links Moscow with the south, and authorities shut it on Saturday as Wagner fighters created their way up from Rostov.

“According to earlier choices designed in the regions, the restriction of traffic along the M-4 ‘Don’ (highway) in the Tula and Moscow locations stays in position,” the agency explained.

A tweet verified by the BBC demonstrates once more how civilians in Rostov celebrated the Wagner troops as they were withdrawing. Not essentially a signal that they never assistance president Vladimir Putin, but however not encouraging for him.

You can also hear a Wagner fighter firing his gun into the air.

The ISW further speculates that Prigozhin saw the Ministry of Defence’s 1 July deadline for all irregular forces, including his Wagner group, to sign contracts with the government as an “existential threat to his political (and possibly personal) survival”.

He therefore “gambled that his only avenue to retain Wagner Group as an independent force was to march against the Russian MoD, likely intending to secure defections in the Russian military but overestimating his own prospects”.

Due to the speed and coordination of Wagner movements, Prigozhin “almost certainly planned this effort in advance,” the thinktank writes – that aligns with US media reports that US intelligence suspected up to two weeks ago that he was planning to take action against Moscow.

The thinktank also suggests that the rebellion may have eroded support for Prigozhin among the utranationalist community and even within Wagner itself, as it forced Wagner-affiliated regional authorities and recruitment organizations to denounce the effort.

Prigozhin also likely angered many Wagner personnel and Wagner-sympathetic ultranationalists by not following through with his attempted march on Moscow.

The agreement brokered by Belarus may also upset Wagner personnel, as it marks the end of efforts to keep Wagner from being subordinated to the MoD.

It is unclear at this time if Prigozhin secured buy-in from Wagner commanders or rank-and-file personnel before making the alleged agreement, and many Wagner personnel will likely be displeased with the potential of signing contracts with the MoD, demobilizing, or deploying away from Ukraine.

More from the ISW analysis, which says that the optics of Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko playing a direct role in the halting of a military advance on Moscow are “humiliating to [Russian president Vladimir] Putin and may have secured Lukashenko other benefits”.

Lukashenko’s reported access to previously established channels and successful negotiation with [Wagner leader Yevgeny] Prigozhin likely indicates Lukashenko has unspecified influence over Prigozhin he could leverage to deescalate the situation …

Lukashenko will likely seek to use the de-escalation of the armed rebellion to advance his goals, such as delaying the formalization of the Russia-Belarus Union State or preventing Putin from using Belarusian forces in Ukraine.

The Kremlin struggled to put together a coherent response to the Wagner mutiny “highlighting internal security weaknesses likely due to surprise and the impact of heavy losses in Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War has said in its latest analysis of the conflict.

Russian authorities mobilised Rosgvardia, the Russian National Police, the US thinktank wrote, but “ISW has not observed any reports or footage suggesting that Rosgvardia units engaged with Wagner at any point”.

Rosgvardia’s founding mission is to protect internal threats to the security of the Russian government such as an advance on Moscow, and it is notable that Rosgvardia failed to engage even as Wagner captured critical military assets in Rostov-on-Don and destroyed Russian military aircraft

It also noted that though Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said he had mobilised his forces – which supposedly specialise in domestic security – in response to the Wagner advance, they also “unsurprisingly” never engaged with Wagner. This is “in line with Kadyrov’s paramount objective of maintaining his own internal security force,” the ISW said.

It concluded:

The Kremlin’s dedicated internal security organs failed to respond to an independent military force capturing the headquarters of the SMD [southern military district] and advancing on Moscow – and Wagner likely could have reached the outskirts of Moscow if Prigozhin chose to order them to do so.

The extraordinary uprising by the Wagner mercenary force so crucial to Vladimir Putin’s war machine in Ukraine has dominated headlines around the world and raised question marks about the Russian president’s grip on power.

The Observer says “Rebel chief halts tank advance on Moscow ‘to stop bloodshed’” next to an image of a Wagner tank in Rostov-on-Don. Analysis by Luke Harding also features on the front, in which he says the mutiny led by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves Putin at his weakest in decades.

Bild in Germany has the headline: “Uprising against Putin” next to images of Wagner fighters. Its subhead reads: “The putsch attempt in Russia and what that means for us.” Die Welt and Der Spiegel both speak of a “power struggle” in Russia on their front pages.

The New York Times carried analysis on what the short-lived mutiny said about Putin’s hold on power. Correspondent Peter Baker noted the dangers and the opportunity the volatility presented to the US the danger being an under-threat president in charge of nuclear missiles, and the opportunity a weakening of Russia’s war effort, to Ukraine’s gain.

Read our full wrap of what the papers say: