This analysis examines the reasons behind recent recalibration of Serbia`s foreign policy within, primarily, its partnership network in the East. Serbia has been increasingly strengthening ties with China while the partnership with Russia has experienced a certain decline especially amidst the Russo-Ukrainian conflict that has brought significant geopolitical uncertainties and shifting foreign policy dynamics in the wider Eurasian region. Recent official visit of the Chinese president to Serbia and numerous current projects that range from transportation, infrastructure to security areas have only confirmed blooming Sino-Serbian strategic cooperation. Due to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict, relations between Serbia and Russia have been in a rather declining mode although both countries continue to foster friendly relations.
It has become evident that the Serbian leadership, especially in the national discourse, has intensified the “ironclad” narrative that forcefully promotes Sino-Serbian friendship. While Russo-Serbian relations remain an important aspect of the country`s foreign policy, Russia that is still presented as a great country’s friend and ally is not anymore an only or primary partner in the East. The analysis further explains how such recalibration remains in line with the country’s balancing diplomacy between the West and East not causing any serious disturbances of already entrenched official Serbia`s foreign policy pursuit. It also discusses how intensified Sino-Serbian collaboration has been perceived among Western powers, in particular with the US that remains vigilant of Chinese growing influence in Europe and the EU that actively monitors its neighbors’ eastward foreign policy.
Serbia’s balancing act
Serbia officially announced the decision to pursue balancing foreign policy in 2009 when the-then Serbian president Boris Tadic outlined the country’s strategic balancing as a four pillars foreign policy relying on strengthening relations with the EU, the US, Russia and China. Due to complex and specific global, regional and national geopolitical events and interests during the end of the 2000s, Serbia assessed that strategic balancing between the West and East in its foreign policy pursuit is the most appropriate and effective approach to meet the country’s national goals. On one hand, Serbia had to acknowledge the unequivocal dominance of the US and its interest in joining the EU and, thus, continue to foster the country’s relations with the West. On the other hand, the 2008 world financial crisis and China’s growing economic influence, as well as Kosovo’s declaration of independence and Russia`s strong support to Serbia`s territorial integrity, spawned China and Russia as important allies and partners in the East.
Much of Serbian foreign policy in the post-2012 era, a period under the leadership of Aleksandar Vucic, has been marked with a balancing act primarily between the EU and Russia. A great aspiration and economic and political interest to join the EU and to maintain close bilateral ties with Russia, has led Serbia to pursue contradictory foreign policy in order to incorporate these two often divergent poles of influence. However, recent geopolitical developments, such as increasing Chinese influence in Europe and expansion of the China-led Belt and Road initiative, as well as the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict, have caused a certain recalibration of Serbian foreign policy. Serbia needed to adjust its position within the Eastern partnership network without significantly changing the already established and practiced balancing act in diplomatic dealings, paving the way to strengthen Sino-Serbian strategic cooperation and loosening the country’s relations with Russia, a traditional and historical partner in the East.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been a decisive moment for Serbia to swap Russia for China as a major bargaining partner with the West. Unlike relations with Russia that have become often criticized and under watchful eye of the West, in particular since the onset of Russo-Ukrainian conflict, cooperation with China remains more discreet and, thus, beneficial for Serbia that seeks less demanding and more relaxed partners, as well as less pressure from the West to curb its ties with Russia that openly promotes anti-Western attitudes. For China, the countries of Western Balkans, in particular Serbia, due to its favorable geopolitical position and political motivation to cooperate with the Eastern countries, have become attractive for deepening economic and political ties, especially after the war in Ukraine suspended operation of one segment of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) through Russia and Belarus. Even though Serbia represents a country with limited political and economic influence, it is attractive to China that has been determined to reach the European market and establish good relations with a wider European region that remains crucial for the realization of the China-led BRI project.
China`s often opaque foreign policy strategy that has been skilfully coated in official discourse that promotes “an equal and orderly multipolar world”, remains the Chinese leadership`s mantra for the outer world. However, China wants to challenge the US dominance in global politics although in a very discreet way through promotion of multipolarity and strengthening relations with numerous, especially anti-US and anti-NATO, countries around the world. Deepening relations between Beijing and Belgrade may not be that provoking for the US as long as they remain more economic and not overly political or military related.
The EU’s stance on the growing Chinese influence in Europe significantly differs across the union. Some EU member states are well aware of intensified Chinese diplomacy in Europe while others are in either complete denial or do not see such a tendency as threatening. China has been building strong ties with particular countries in Europe such as Serbia and Hungary as those countries, unlike many European states, welcome Chinese investments and perceive China’s economic projects and initiatives as crucial for Europe’s success.
Regarding the changes in the Eastern partnership with swapping Russia with China, Serbia has not significantly altered its established balancing act. However, if Sino-Serbian collaboration continues to increase it might propel US-China over the EU-Russia balancing in Serbian foreign policy but it will not change the core of the country’s foreign policy, i.e. strategic balancing between the West and East.
Recalibration of Serbia’s foreign policy
Serbia, as a traditional and historical ally to Russia, has been assessing its foreign policy pursuit between strong Western criticism towards countries which continue to foster friendly relations with Russia and growing Chinese influence and motivation to cooperate with European countries. While Russia has been preoccupied with the war in Ukraine and promoting anti-Western propaganda, China has been using the opportunity to rather discreetly enhance its presence in Europe and grow the network of trading partners in the wider European region. The EU remains deeply divided over China’s enhanced interests to strengthen cooperation with Europe. However, Serbia, a country in the Union`s immediate neighborhood, is eager to welcome Chinese investments and use this window of opportunity to deepen economic ties with Chinese companies and the country’s leadership. It has been also in Serbia`s interest to preserve the balancing approach in its foreign policy and continue fostering strong relations in the East, especially with increasingly influential China.
In the context of contemporary political circumstances where rivalry between powerful states can create not only opportunities but also costs, especially for small and not that prominent countries, Serbia has had to cautiously respond to new developments with subtle changes in its foreign policy behavior. In order not to experience serious repercussions in a current heated political environment, surrounding the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Serbia has had to find a substitute for a powerful partner in the East and maintain its balancing strategy. China has appeared as a perfect new partner that concurrently fosters good relations with Russia and the West without concerning excessive behavior. Although Beijing has officially kept a neutral position toward Russia`s invasion of Ukraine, Chinese leadership has been known for supporting authoritarian-oriented regimes that imply anti-Western and anti-democratic tendencies. It is also known for challenging the US-led international order but never to the extent of aggressive and reckless manners.
Sino-Russian relations are based not only on mutual economic but also political interests that reverberate around anti-Americanism and challenging the US-led world order. Although China’s relations with Russia are not without certain limitations and issues, the Chinese leadership is convinced that deepening such relations can help to counter US strategy in both economic and diplomatic areas. Due to intertwined interests and complex relations between Moscow and Beijing, China’s growing presence in Europe and in particular Serbia has not been met, at least not officially, with Russia’s criticism or resentment. Moreover, the US has been unexpectedly quiet with growing Chinese presence in Europe, which can be addressed to preoccupation with Russian excessive aggression and prevention of creating another strained relationship especially with a such powerful state as China.
Serbia has seized an opportunity to continue its balancing act and welcome China as a new major partner in the East. Such recalibration was necessary in order to keep the country’s existing position of being in-between the two major poles of influence and preserve its maneuvering space intact even if such a change implies shifts from the EU-Russia to the US-China competition lines.
Official “ironclad friendship” narrative
China’s president, Xi Jinping, has recently conducted a three-country tour of Europe, including France as a de facto EU`s leader and two pro-Russian countries, Serbia and Hungary, which are also recipients of considerable Chinese investment. The aim of the official Chinese visit was to deepen Sino-European ties and exhibit China’s vision for a more multipolar world. In the case of Serbia, the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, decided to pay a visit to this small Western Balkans country on the 25th anniversary of NATO’s bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and in a symbolic way remind the public about such a tragic event that “will stay in the shared memory of the Chinese and Serbian peoples” For China, Serbia, in addition to fruitful economic ties, remains a perfect place for promoting its anti-US and anti-NATO sentiments. China’s, although cautious, denouncing of the US foreign policy has been received without any questioning in Serbia, a country that is strongly anti-NATO and pro-Russia oriented.
In a signed article in Politika, a Serbian daily, Xi Jinping branded Sino-Serbian collaboration as an “ironclad friendship” that is “ever growing” and “shines even brighter in the new era”. In the article, the Chinese president also emphasized that “China and Serbia hold similar positions on many major international and regional issues” and should “advocate an equal and orderly multipolar world”. Undoubtedly, China perceives Serbia as a strategically important partner in Europe and hopes to extend such partnership to diverse areas of collaboration that go beyond economic relations. Sino-Serbian relationship has been recently expanded to the security field that mainly revolves around military cooperation, public security and police cooperation. The Serbian leader has also expressed mutual support and interest in strengthening bilateral relations with China. During the last visit to Serbia, the Chinese president received a warm welcome from his Serbian counterpart, Aleksandar Vucic, who stated that the two countries “are writing history today” in front of a cheering crowd of several thousand people waving Chinese flags in Belgrade.
Both countries have also found a common political ground that implies supporting each other’s territorial integrity claims. China continues to claim self-governed Taiwan as part of its territory and supports countries that have similar issues in terms of maintaining their territorial integrity and sovereignty. In that regard, Aleksandar Vucic, during the public speech, with Xi Jiping by his side, asserted that “Taiwan is China ” and that both countries continue to support each other’s territorial integrity without any reservations. In a reciprocating manner, Xi Jinping later stated that China “supports Serbia’s efforts to preserve its territorial integrity regarding Kosovo.” The principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty represent a strong binding political force in the Sino-Serbian relations and will continue to play an important role at least as long as Serbia’s position on Kosovo remains unchanged.
Western response to Sino-Serbian collaboration
Xi’s symbolic arrival in Belgrade on the May 7 anniversary of the NATO bombing of the Chinese embassy was a signal to the wider world, in particular the Western powers, that China wants to present itself as a peaceful and stability-oriented country unlike the US and NATO that continue with a “warmonger” attitude and inflaming rethorics while meddling in even the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Washington is well aware that China’s official visit to Serbia carried a forthright anti-US and anti-NATO message. However, the US and the EU are more concerned about ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict and Russia’s aggressive and reckless behavior that China remains at least for the time being exempt from direct Western criticism. Moreover, Western powers are familiar with Serbia’s balancing strategy. As many developing countries that use current geopolitical opportunities to gain a certain level of leverage, Serbia’s strengthening relations with China still do not pose a serious threat that seek immediate response.
However, the US closely monitors China’s growing influence in Europe and tends to curb and contain such an influence to economic areas as much as possible. For instance, the Washington agreement from 2020 prohibited Serbia to use 5G equipment procured from “unverified suppliers”. Even though the agreement did not mention Chinese tech companies such as Huawei as possible suppliers of the 5G technology, it was clear that such a ban was alluding to China’s growing presence and the wider geopolitical interests of the US to contain further expansion of Chinese influence abroad, especially in the security realms.
If relations between Washington and Beijing deteriorate seriously, the Sino-Serbian partnership will be heavily criticized and scrutinized. However, if the US-China relationship remains on a current status quo, “Serbian foreign policy of hedging and balancing as a tactical and opportunist policy” will continue to function as there is a room for maneuvering both sides without significantly provoking either side. As the geopolitical environment has been dramatically changed after Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine, it is expected that the US-China competition will take a new major point in international relations. Such a scenario will also affect the Serbian foreign policy, although not in an essential but more in a symbolic way, shifting Serbia’s balancing act from the EU-Russia to the US-China poles of influence.
Due to the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian conflict and Western criticism towards the countries that continue to foster friendly relations with Russia, Serbia has had to cautiously respond to such geopolitical uncertainties with finding a new partner in the East in order to preserve its balancing foreign policy between the West and East. Serbia continues to practice a balancing act in its diplomatic endeavors, as such an approach proves to be the most effective strategy in diplomatic dealings of the country. Recalibration of Serbia’s diplomatic pursuit hasn’t altered the core of the country’s foreign policy but rather discreetly enhanced the already established balancing between the West and East.
Elevated Sino-Serbian collaboration has replaced traditionally strong Russia-Serbia Eastern partnership. Strengthened relations with China have brought not only new opportunities but also challenges including closer Western monitoring and possible pressure from especially the US regarding nature and scope of the Sino-Serbian partnership. However, balancing strategy in foreign relations implies risks but it also provides a level of leverage especially if it is used in a proper manner, which helps less affluent states to acquire a certain amount of influence in foreign relations with powerful countries. Serbia’s balancing act will continue to shape the country’s foreign policy pursuit in the foreseeable future as such a behavior carries great maneuvering potential in an often complex and volatile geopolitical environment, especially on a competitive line between the West and East.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Nina Miholjcic-Ivkovic is a researcher at the Belgrade Centre for Human Rights, Serbia.
