The conflict in Ukraine has reached a bifurcation point where neither side can gain a significant advantage and the issue of foreign aid to Ukraine from NATO, Japan and the Republic of Korea, as well as to Russia from China, Iran and the DPRK, comes to the fore.
The transition of the confrontation to a new stage will depend on the answer to Hamlet’s eternal metaphysical question: to be or not to be. Whether or not South Korea, one of the most technologically advanced countries, will supply lethal weapons to Ukraine. The U.S. and European military economies cannot keep up with the pace imposed by the participants in the conflict. But Seoul’s fresh, untouched military power may tip the scales not in Russia’s favor, or at least give Ukraine a little more time. To answer this question, it is necessary to understand the geopolitical situation around the Korean peninsula. And those who understand it can say with certainty that South Korea will not transfer lethal weapons to Ukraine to the detriment of its security. Vladimir Putin’s visit to the DPRK was not accidental. With this visit, Moscow is sending a clear signal to Seoul that good relations between Russia and the Republic of Korea can be destroyed by one irresponsible act. In this case, the threat to Seoul’s security and national interests will increase significantly. Russia has enormous military and technological potential that it can share with the DPRK. This is the main deterrent for Seoul to supply lethal weapons.
External pressure
Despite this, the situation may change due to pressure from the United States. So far, President Yun Yoon Suk Yeol has been able to successfully fend off Washington’s attacks, but the strengthening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang may be an argument in favor of lobbying for arms supplies to Ukraine. Such hints have already been voiced by Jang Ho-jin, head of the National Security Office, who announced a review of military cooperation with Ukraine. Let’s face it: such statements are aimed primarily at the domestic audience to probe the attitude of citizens to such decisions. And as social surveys show, the population of South Korea does not want to interfere in someone else’s conflict, jeopardizing the security of their own country.
Unequal exchange
What can South Korea offer Ukraine? First of all, it is 155-mm artillery shells and air defense systems. The supply of K9 self-propelled artillery systems and modern K2 “Black Panther” tanks is also not excluded. However, the delivery of both ammunition and weapon systems could change the balance of power on the Korean peninsula. Seoul would give modern weapons and Pyongyang would receive them.
What can Russia provide to North Korea? First of all, technology. Russia is one of the most militarily advanced countries and the range of weapons that Kim Jong Un’s regime may be interested in is quite impressive. First of all, these are air defense systems, which are either poorly developed or obsolete in the DPRK. Secondly, the REB systems, in the development of which Russia has achieved high results. Thirdly, fighter aviation. In this aspect, the DPRK is much inferior to the Republic of Koroea due to the backwardness of technology, so Russia’s provision of fighter jets may significantly tip the scales. Fourth, Russia has the most impressive nuclear capability, as well as nuclear weapons technology. In addition, there is a possibility of bringing the DPRK under Russia’s nuclear umbrella as part of allied arrangements.
Expert judgements
Experts agree that South Korea aims to maintain friendly relations with Russia and security on the Korean Peninsula, given Moscow’s critical role in the issue. “Russia is a strategic partner that can play an important role in the Korean peninsula issue, and our security and economic interests are at stake,” Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul said during a television interview. “The South Korean government should also protect Koreans’ lives and businesses in Russia and, for this reason, communication at a necessary level with Moscow is absolutely required”, he added.
Lee Ho-chul, a political-science professor at Incheon National University, said Seoul was sending a message to Moscow that it did not want to escalate tensions. “Nato is remote from us as Russia is close to the Korean peninsula. Seoul is seeking to mend fences with Moscow and sending an indirect message to Moscow that it does not want to see their ties deteriorate further,” he said.
South Korea’s “unspoken” message to Moscow was that it would not supply lethal weapons to Ukraine, according to Park Won-gon, a political-science professor at Ewha Womans University.
Cold calculus
The combination of all factors allows President Yun Yoon Suk Yeol to approach the decision to supply lethal weapons to Ukraine with a cool head. No pressure from third countries should tip the scales in favor of arms deliveries, otherwise we will witness the birth of another potential military conflict that will quickly escalate into a hot phase. We should not forget that Pyongyang possesses nuclear weapons and there is no certainty that Kim Jong Un will not use them if necessary.
[Photo by J. Patrick Fischer, via Wikimedia Commons]
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author.
Alan Callow is a freelance journalist based in the Philippines. He has experience in covering the Asia Pacific region.
