As the United States gears up for its upcoming election, the Democrats have made a striking move, pledging a substantial $500 million to boost Philippines’ military capabilities, signaling a robust show of solidarity. The upcoming election of the USA opens up a series of debates between the two parties, the Democrats and the Republicans. For the Democrats, the series of escalations in the South China Sea is a threat to the sovereignty of countries in the region and the extended maritime space of the Indo-Pacific. Their decision to provide substantial funding in response to Manila’s request is perceived as a step towards militarization in the zone of the South China Sea. This move raises critical questions about its implications for the region and the broader Indo-Pacific.
The South China Sea, otherwise claimed as the West Philippines Sea by the Philippines, is a region fraught with competing claims and escalating territorial disputes. China’s claims of sovereignty over the South China Sea, bolstered by an estimated 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and natural gas of 190 trillion cubic feet, have provoked tensions with competing claimants, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Taiwan. The Spratly and Paracel archipelagos are particularly contested due to their abundant natural resources and lucrative fishing grounds. These claimants are in unison that China is a “strategic challenge” threatening their sea lanes of communication and the principles of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
The extended interest of the USA in the South China Sea through its iron-clad commitment is a matter of concern for the geopolitics in the Indo-Pacific. This is substantiated by the extended scope of interest by the USA in Taiwan to counter the rise of China and abundant non-renewable natural resources. Since USA is exploring potential strategic and economic ties with the Philippines and Vietnam to navigate and explore the natural resources in the zone, it is a matter of contestation to China due to its claim of legitimacy on the same resources. As a result, the Indo-Pacific region’s geopolitics has constantly evolved, leading to a series of strategic maneuvers unfolding tensions and complex alliances.
The USA perceives Chinese expansionist tendencies as an ever-existing threat to its own sovereignty and to the island archipelagos, large and small. Additionally, the proximity of the conflicted zone to the Guam island, which houses multiple USA military facilities, underscores the strategic importance of investing in Manila. It is acutely aware that China’s ambitions extend beyond the South China Sea, driven by its desire to be the hegemon in the Indo-Pacific region.
With the upcoming elections in the USA and the possibility of a leadership change, the American stance on the South China Sea might see a change, contradiction and can remain constant. The American interest in the Indo-Pacific region will not die down even if there is a change in the government. However, if the Republicans come to power, given their preferred inclination toward an ‘America First’ policy, they are likely not to extend such a funding and reduce support to other nations in the region, such as Vietnam. Such a shift underscores the uncertainty surrounding the nature of the USA’s future engagement in the South China Sea. It could possibly join the graveyard of yet another failed attempt by the USA to have a coherent foreign policy.
An expected reaction from Beijing will surely come, with the South China Sea likely to see increased activity from the nation-states within and beyond the zone. Heightened tensions among competing claimants could lead to small island nations being utilized for military bases, armaments, and troop deployments. This region might see multiple wars as powers seek to establish dominance, reminiscent of the militarization observed in West Asia. Smaller nation-states will likely be roped into increasing their investment in military capacities under the guise of self-defense. Sophisticated defense weaponries and systems are expected to be deployed in the South China Sea zone. This perpetuates a vicious cycle of insecurities, militarization, and conflicts.
For India, peace and stability in the South China Sea are of utmost importance, with solutions ideally emerging from the nation-states within the region. India looks at the region through the lens of its strategic and economic interests and surely not from an expansionist lens. The nation-state doesn’t want any disruptive ripples in the zone of the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific. Indeed, it does not want another episode of tensions unfolding, just like the never-ending tension in West Asia. The role of India as a leader for a “free, open, stable, secure and prosperous ocean” becomes critical at this heightened militarization in the Zone of the South China Sea. The call of all nation-states in this region should be for “collective endeavors that can prove the international system against disruptions”.
[Header image: A combined U.S. Navy and Philippine Navy task group. Credit: US Navy, via Wikimedia Commons]
Krutika Reddy is a PhD Scholar at Chanakya University. Her interest areas include Public Policy, International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Indo-Pacific.
Dr. Chetan Singai is the Dean of the School of Law and Governance at Chanakya University, Bengaluru. He earned his PhD from the National Institute of Advanced Studies at the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, India, focusing on higher education and university governance. He was appointed Chief Consultant and Convenor for the National Curriculum Framework’s National Steering Committee by the Ministry of Education, Government of India. Dr. Singai has authored two books and over 25 articles in peer-reviewed journals on topics including higher education, space policy, and human rights. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors.
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