The Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process showed a positive development in December when the two international locations held immediate talks. This appears to worry external players although, who view the South Caucasus area as an extension of the political struggle amongst the US-led West and Russia in Ukraine. On Dec. 7, 2023, Armenia and Azerbaijan for the very first time issued an unpredicted joint assertion, devoid of the involvement of any 3rd get together, in which both equally nations confirmed their intentions to normalise relations and access a peace treaty based mostly on the ideas of territorial integrity and sovereignty. Also for the 1st time, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed as part of the joint assertion to guidance every single other at global level. As a final result, Armenia supported Azerbaijan’s initiative to host the UN’s 29th Session of the Convention of Parties (COP29) in return for Azerbaijan’s guidance for Armenia’s candidacy for membership of the Eastern European Team COP Bureau. This historic joint assertion was probable thanks to the direct engagement of the functions in negotiations with no any involvement of 3rd functions.
The optimistic developments commenced with the fifth meeting of the point out commissions on the delimitation of the state border in between Armenia and Azerbaijan held at the shared border. As component of the approach, the two Armenia and Azerbaijan authorized the laws of the commission on border delimitation in December.
It is value emphasizing that all these beneficial developments in the peace procedure involving Armenia and Azerbaijan had been reached by using direct talks, some thing which Azerbaijan experienced been advocating for a whilst. Azerbaijan instructed to Armenia keeping immediate bilateral talks and also negotiations in a regional structure with the participation of Ga. The idea behind Azerbaijan’s proposals is to sideline and minimise the disruptive involvement of third parties that are making an attempt to facilitate their geopolitical passions by having the peace approach hostage and viewing it as an extension of the geopolitical rivalry in Ukraine. This has been the scenario with the involvement of Russia, France/EU and the United states as “intermediaries”.
Submit-colonial mindset: the job of France in sustaining Armenia’s profession policy
France’s policy of supporting Armenia and its aggressive nationalistic circles has led to severe, unhinged actions that contradict UN rules and international regulation. One case in point is the current resolution adopted on seventeen January by the French Senate which calls for sanctions in opposition to Azerbaijan for the measures taken to re-establish Azerbaijani sovereignty about Karabakh. The irony of the resolution is that although it affirms Armenia’s suitable to defend its “territorial integrity” which includes by force, it condemns Azerbaijan for defending its territorial integrity and re-setting up its sovereignty. The resolution goes more and calls for the launch of the previous irredentist Armenian leaders who led the occupation of Azerbaijani territory and ethnic cleaning of its Azerbaijani populace, and requested missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ganja and other Azerbaijani towns in 2020, in which dozens of civilians were killed.
The most current resolution by the French Senate is portion of President Macron’s ongoing attempts to insert himself as a “formidable” statesman on the world phase. However, these tries continue to keep failing and France has turn into an insignificant external actor in the South Caucasus.
As a former co-chair of the Minsk Team, France savored the geopolitical privileges of impact in the South Caucasus region thanks to the extensive drawn-out Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands. The sole function of France was to be certain the unlimited sustainability of the status quo, facilitating Armenia’s annexation of the Azerbaijani lands in the prolonged phrase. Owning a substantial Armenian diaspora and historical past of support for Armenian irredentism and armed rebellions because the nineteenth century, France views Armenia as a probable satellite to be utilized in an attempt to undertaking Paris as a world wide player amidst its colossal defeats in Africa’s Sahel area. Biased and Armenia- centric French procedures towards Azerbaijan can be seen in the actions of the previous French ambassador to the UN, Jean-Bernard Mérimée, who for the duration of the UN Security Council consultation adhering to Armenia’s occupation of Kelbajar district of Azerbaijan in April 1993 instructed excluding Armenia’s name from the draft resolution and adding rather the ambiguous term “local Armenian forces” in get to spare Armenia obligation for its actions.
Jean-Bernard Mérimée also advocated applying the language of Chapter VI of the UN Charter on the peaceful settlement of disputes, by objecting to the use of Chapter VII language on getting action to restore peace and protection, in UN Protection Council Resolution 822. In other text, France intentionally advocated the Chapter VI formulation, which is termed the Pacific Settlement of Disputes, in order to secure the occupation of Kelbajar by Armenia and make it portion of an infinite negotiations process in favour of Armenia.
As a co-chair of the former Minsk Group from 1997, France place on a display of becoming a peace system mediator. In each and every suggestion proposed by the co-chairs it did almost everything to propose Armenia-pleasant “solutions”, such as the Madrid Concepts, in buy to trade swathes of the occupied Azerbaijani lands for the creation of a Kosovo-type statelet in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region. This was part of a colonial attitude to sustain exterior impact in the region. All the function of France and its associates, the US and Russia, aimed to sustain the profession status quo indefinitely. In March 2008, Azerbaijan took the problem of the occupied lands to the UN Basic Assembly as the inaction of the Minsk Team experienced designed stagnation. France and its associates objected to this attempt and the French consultant at the UN built it clear that France would vote against the draft resolution. France, the US and Russia jointly with Armenia voted towards the draft resolution. The resolution adopted by the UN General Assembly named for the “immediate, entire and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian forces from all the occupied territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan”.
When Armenia commenced to carry illegal Armenian settlers from Lebanon, Syria and Armenia to the then occupied lands, this was satisfied with inaction amounting to tacit approval for this demographic engineering coverage from the co-chair nations, such as France. Azerbaijan required to increase the issue of unlawful settlements in their territory and have a fact-obtaining mission despatched to the occupied lands in 2010, but the Minsk Group co-chairs exerted enormous pressure on Azerbaijan which had to withdraw its draft resolution. In impact, the co-chairs monopolised administration of the conflict in buy to affect and rule the South Caucasus area as colonial powers.
Azerbaijan exposes the weak spot of France, neutralising its attempts to get leverage in the region
With the begin of the Azerbaijani counteroffensive to end the occupation of Karabakh in 2020, France was so aggravated that President Macron disseminated fake news. His groundless and unsubstantiated promises that “Syrian mercenaries are fighting on Azerbaijan’s side” were low cost propaganda invented by Russia and Armenia. Owning been defeated in a geopolitical wrestle about Libya by Turkey the identical 12 months, Macron’s anti-Turkey hysteria culminated in accusations against Turkey of producing difficulties in the South Caucasus, forgetting that Turkey is a regional region bordering all a few South Caucasus nations and also a close all-natural ally of Azerbaijan. Acquiring appreciated many years of conflict management as a result of the colonial system of the Minsk Group, France’s chief unsuccessful to recognize that the stability of electric power had already modified in favour of Azerbaijan and Turkey, which has strategic autonomy unlike in the nineteen nineties. In Oct 2020 in the midst of the war, when every day the Azerbaijani Military was liberating village immediately after village, town immediately after city, France together with Russia and the United States experimented with to move a UN Stability Council Resolution in purchase to nullify the 4 SC resolutions adopted in the nineteen nineties contacting for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Karabakh.
President Macron’s irrational remarks that “We will not accept Azerbaijani management above Nagorno-Karabakh” contradicted intercontinental law and the principle of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of sovereign states, and can be seen as the climax of his shortsighted see of international policy. Meanwhile, French nationals taking portion in the war in opposition to Azerbaijan as international mercenaries were some thing the Élysée Palace did not tackle, unlike its tricky prison steps in opposition to French nationals signing up for conflicts in Syria and Iraq. When the Second Karabakh War ended with a trilateral statement in November 2020, France and the Minsk Team shed their part in the peace approach. They experienced been excluded from talks on the trilateral statement, which enhanced French hysteria about Azerbaijan’s victory. In the new geopolitical realities Turkey’s job experienced greater. In a desperate endeavor to keep their influence, President Macron’s office referred to as for the presently out-of-day Minsk Group to be put in charge of intercontinental supervision of the trilateral assertion in Karabakh. In December 2020 Macron and the French Senate tried out to blackmail Azerbaijan by adopting a non-binding resolution contacting on the French governing administration to officially recognise the now defunct Armenian irredentist entity in Karabakh.
As France observed by itself having difficulties to keep any impact in the South Caucasus area, it stubbornly acted as if the dead Minsk Team nevertheless existed, appointing a new “co-chair”, Brice Roquefeuil, in 2021. The appointment was rejected by Azerbaijan and Roquefeuil has not been welcome in Azerbaijan at any time considering that. This was a further diplomatic weak point of the Macron administration.
How France destroyed the EU initiative
With the get started of EU mediation as a result of Charles Michel’s particular initiative by the conclusion of 2021, the French president desperately attempted to use the EU system to insert himself into the peace process. Adhering to the Eastern Partnership Summit in Brussels in December 2021, Emmanuel Macron appeared in a resort where he satisfied the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders for a photo opportunity. Macron tried to enjoy a “mediator” part and posted his photos on X (Twitter). By undertaking so the French president was attempting to existing himself as the “protector” of Armenians for his domestic base as properly as to faux that France is a “global” energy.
Armenia refused to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty around Karabakh and continued its armed service provocation, not having the Brussels structure for talks seriously. It released a armed service attack on Azerbaijani positions on the conditional border on twelve September 2022 which kicked off big scale fighting. Azerbaijan’s countermeasures and major retaliation from the Armenian armed forces targets forced Armenia and its external backers to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty more than Karabakh at the Very first European Political Group Summit in Prague on six October 2022 with the participation of Macron and Michel. And however again Emmanuel Macron received his photo prospect.
Azerbaijani civil society activists staged protests on the Lachin street from Armenia’s transportation of landmines and weapons, from the illegal economic actions of Russian billionaire Ruben Vardanyan in the formerly Russian-managed zone of Karabakh in get to produce financial earnings for Armenian irredentism in opposition to Azerbaijan, and against environmental damages to the forests of Karabakh. Armenia started to disseminate a phony narrative about a so identified as “blockade” and France collectively with Armenia tried out to go a draft resolution at the UN SC in December 2022. As a everlasting member of the Safety Council, France geared up a professional-Armenia draft resolution in which it dramatized and falsely presented the condition on the Khankendi-Lachin highway as a “humanitarian disaster”. This try was led by Macron’s business immediately and his international policy advisors. As a end result of a 10-day diplomatic fight France conceded however an additional diplomatic defeat by abandoning the draft, which had experienced to go by quite a few editions in the discussion, finally losing its key aims and turning into irrelevant.
Macron’s particular obsession with Armenia ongoing. Though Macron was given an opportunity to choose element in Michel’s mediation, Macron and Michel appeared to want to alter the Brussels structure to incorporate the French president. Even so, Azerbaijan swiftly turned down the improve and insisted on the trilateral structure that had been the basis of the EU’s original engagement. Immediately after Macron’s unacceptable remarks on French Television, Brussels required to increase the French president to the format for the 7 December 2022 assembly. On the other hand, President Ilham Aliyev rejected Macron’s participation and declined to vacation to Brussels if Macron was existing. Then Brussels tried out to aid Macron’s involvement by including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as Azerbaijan thought that Germany might incorporate and harmony France’s undiplomatic Armenia-centric situation. Olaf Scholz also participated in the second European Political Neighborhood Meeting in June 2023.
In his conference with leaders of the Armenian radical Dashnak occasion and Armenian local community of Marseilles in June 2023, President Macron reported that he would keep on to choose “action” with regards to Karabakh and his motivation should not be doubted. Macron even further mentioned that France had sent a armed forces attaché to its embassy in Yerevan which “means something”. Overconfident, the French president went on to say, “I have and will carry on to put a lot more stress on Aliyev than Pashinyan himself. I am the only just one who has a apparent place and message on the Karabakh problem.”
As Armenia ongoing to smuggle weapons and illicit goods, which includes landmines created in Armenia in 2021, into Karabakh by means of the Lachin street, Azerbaijan had to consider issues into its individual arms and established a border crossing stage, as is the inalienable right of a sovereign country. Observing its incapacity to maintain the Armenian irredentist statements and challenge its affect in the Karabakh area of Azerbaijan, France ironically condemned a sovereign nation’s lawful actions to management its possess borders on its very own sovereign land.
President Macron vowed to bring global diplomatic pressure to bear to let the stream of illicit products and unchecked travel via the Lachin road in April 2023. Irrespective of the French propaganda attacks against Azerbaijan, Paris failed but once more. The exhibit of vans lining up to cross the border, which was an strategy of the French presidency to violate Azerbaijan’s sovereignty less than the pretext of “humanitarian aid”, was entirely debunked and nullified by Azerbaijan.
With the neighborhood anti-terror actions introduced by Azerbaijan on 19 September 2023, the period of a gray zone and Armenian illegal irredentist routine came to an end within just a lot less than 23 hours. Once again, France experimented with to move a resolution at the UN SC and failed miserably. Conference on the sidelines of an EU summit in Granada in October 2023, the EU’s Michel, Macron and Scholz with the participation of Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan adopted a strange doc devoid of Azerbaijan’s participation. Azerbaijan had refused to attend the conference following the refusal of Macron and Scholz to make it possible for Turkish President Erdogan’s participation. Considering the fact that the Turkish president ruined French steps in Libya and the East Med, Macron considered he could realize anything against Turkey. However, Azerbaijan once all over again struck a blow to the French president’s hopes, building him irrelevant to the process. Macron also ruined the EU initiative, as by putting his signature to the Granada doc Charles Michel effectively sidelined himself and the EU as a “mediator”. Considering that then Michel’s mediation and the Brussels process have been useless.
Following dealing with crushing geopolitical defeats in the Sahel location France endured devastating diplomatic defeats in the South Caucasus by Azerbaijan. The exposure and expulsion of French intelligence brokers at the French embassy in Baku inflicted an additional blow to Macron’s France. France is a declining power and its neocolonial vanity that it can intimidate lesser states via global institutions has been shattered in the case of Azerbaijan. This proves that states defending their sovereignty and pursuing a realist overseas coverage with a strong alliance of regional states this kind of as Turkey and Israel can roll back the conflict management geopolitical system and colonialist procedures of the massive powers. The case of Azerbaijan is a product for that. Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of Town, College of London. His investigation area handles the South Caucasus and Iran.
[Photo of IAEA Imagebank, via Wikimedia Commons]
Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of Town, University of London. His analysis area handles the South Caucasus and Iran. The views expressed in this post are those people of the author and do not necessarily reflect TGP’s editorial stance.
